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40% my backside. I mean I know you can flip a quarter 20 times and get heads everytime but come on.
Anyway no answer for you other than next time I get the event I'm def choosing a different path.
It was made that way so you can't reload a save just before the final event hits to re-roll your chances. You actually need to go back farther in your saves. Also i believe it is 33% survive 66% collapse.
I was able to savescum and move my pops off world before the end.
I'm also not doing this again, but mostly because you just lose your planet and that's it. I was cool with some consequences, even a wrecked planet, but this is no fun.
but then the old terraforming equipment on planets is determined when you finish the special project.
or you can screw them like they screwed you and script your way out of it.
thsi situation is irreversible in normal game, and you can not savescum out of it, which is intended by sadistic dev, yet it can be overturned.
this is assuming that you already came to the final event id which is situation.1095 (An End), where you ave 33% chance of good outcome, or 66% chance of bad outcome
read below.
1. get the CE cheat table for stellaris, the newest is 3.8.3
2. run CE, enable console in an ironman game, turn CE off, alt tab back into game,hit the ¸ key
3. right click on event icon so it dissapears
4. in console type the following, one after another:
effect remove_modifier = horror_too_late
effect remove_planet_flag = black_hole_horror
effect set_planet_flag = stabilized_horror
bam, now you have a good modifier, your capital city is okay and your game experience is a bit tainted because you had to crack the game to do it, but the playthrough is salvaged.
now exit to desktop, reenter stellaris and never use the cheat again unless you run into a situation liek this again :)