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And if you really need the boost grab gardians of the galaxy.
It can be done. I have a current game where the roaming fleet sizes are around 250k, and 500k guards at their homeworld (plus 100k station). I've beaten one world, three left to go.
The trick is that the larger fleets do not leave their planet - they're guards essentially. You amass an armada that can kill their smaller fleets, and for your situation, I'd keep them isolated until you can grow stronger - through tech and through quantity. Building up your strength is the main priority for you.
Once you are strong enough (especially in economy), you may have to attack the homeworld a few times to eliminate it. It took me two attacks in my case. Attack, retreat once you feel like you're no longer doing damage, rebuild - attack again.
Tech wise - note that they have large health pools in shields/armor, but low amounts of hull. Use weapons that attack the hull directly (like XL lightning (forget name)).
Oh, there's a button you press at the top of your fleet. Looks like an arrow kind of. It'll give you a ring that will show how far you can jump. Click on the system, and you're good to go.
No prob. :)
CRAP! Jumping didn't used to do that. Yes I just jumped into the system next to the contingency and my fleet power was cut by a ton. I was wondering what was going on. Also they are up to 5 homeworlds now and about 5 million in ships. It's not looking good for the galaxy. Did they play test this at all?
If you find the end game events too hard you can adjust them down in strength or extend the years before they can happen to give yourself more time to prepare.
I think the main thing that is hurting here is the distance, and the power of the other AI empires. You're almost dealing with the threat all by yourself. And there's not that much time/distance you can put between them and yourself, if this is a small galaxy.
Oh, this might be useful for you to have hope. "Originally one of the Precursor empires, the Cybrex will resurface to help fight the Contingency if it sterilizes over 20% of the Galaxy. Near a random rim system, the Cybrex Beta ringworld system will spawn. All Empires will be contacted immediately. The Cybrex function analogous to the Sentinels of the Swarm Crisis, except they will only donate ships after 100 destroyed fleets and will take them back a month after the crisis ends."
So you should get some support after some time of them invading. I wouldn't count on them though. Also, typically fallen empires will help combat the invading fleets (had one awaken and help out a bit).
Let's make a final defense plan. Fully armed fortresses should easily be in the 35k-40k range with ion cannons. Highly recommend those for long range support. Those along key choke points with supporting fleets to fight the contingency should keep them at bay indefinitely. Your tech will continuously improve - their fleet strength will remain the same and will not improve. Keep your allies alive as best as you can, but if they're dead, then so be it.
Personally, I love do-or-die situations like these. Really stresses and pushes you to find innovative ideas to keep alive at all costs. Such as when I was fighting the horde very close to my empire. Landed 40 assault armies on one of my planet (blocking a key bridge) under a planetary shield, to delay the khanate from invading further (fleet was way too strong). Held them off for 3 years while they bombed it, landed armies... finally took it. But it was enough time given to rebuild and have defenses set up further back. Anyway... I recommend framing it in mind as a challenge. I find it doesn't come too often in games.
Remember that this is the end game crisis you are fighting.
If you lose, the game is over.
If you win the game is over as there should be literally nothing left stopping you from doing whatever with the galaxy.
Either outcome will more than likely force you to start a new game so even if you lose its not as bad as it might sound ;)