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You said that this machine race killed your empire leader? That sounds like you were fighting a Fallen Empire, who start out with thousands of times your strength even though they control only a few planets. If you anger them, they will declare a Humiliation war against you, and as a bonus will assassinate your leader after they win, something normal empires cannot do.
Hopefully you killed at least one of their ships. If you did, it will leave behind wreckage that you can study to gain some very nice tech.
So you can never feel too safe, though the numbers will try their best to reflect it.
If you have 110k+ fleet power in a system a 20k or even 40k fleet, no matter how its built, should never win. That's just not how the game works.
Also you mention a red bar? The only red bar I can think of is the one that appears during combat to give a rough estimate as to which direction the fight is going. Red means its going in the direction of your enemies wining. So if it's 2/3rds red and 1/3rd blue that means you're losing the fight.
The only explanation I can think of is that you're reading their fleet power wrong and the enemy you're fighting is the end game crisis and not a normal npc empire. Because on Cadet difficulty the AI is kind of a wet blanket rarely attacking or reaching a high enough fleet power to pose a threat to a badly player run empire, let alone a well managed one.
"Hey this game you guys have been playing for years? Well I have been playing for 17 minutes and I just figured out the stats dont mean anything at all. Why havent you guys firgured this out in 3 years of playing?"
Joking aside though, that sounds highly exaggerated. Under normal circumstances, the AI wouldn't even dare flying into a system with more than twice their fleet power. And unlike the player who knows that fleet power is a rough estimation and can make an informed guess on how their fleets will really perform, the AI takes that number at face value.
Anyway, the only explanation I can think of, assuming your retelling of the events is reliable, is that the fleet ran into the immunity bug. In that case, your fleets and starbases simply didn't fight back and somehow you did not notice.
tl;dr
You gotta know when to hold, and when to fold.
A lot of people make the mistake of counting all their money when they are sitting at the table. I tell them there will be time enough for counting when the deal is done.
Yeah, my mistake. Going to the forum to see if either I was experiencing a bug or seeking advice is generally a terrible idea isn't it?
I don't know what to tell you. I watched as a machine race wiped my empire out and no my numbers were all exact. Ironman mode autosaved me just before my empire was wiped out, but after my fleets were destroyed so no luck of an explanation there. They were named The Omni Directive and they wiped through a hivemind empire I was neighboring, killed the Khan in combat and killed a dimensional horror that was a neutral due to me "letting it out". Thought it'd make a good defense.