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(you might want to use console commands to either get full intel, or switch to other empires and play them to see if they have any Gray attacking them)
They don't need to win, they just need to make sure you lose.
It's the first time, I really needed the help of the Guardians of the Galaxy. I think the threats are attacking the strongest empires (or the player) preferentially which adds excitement and game balance.
100K Gray Tempest, it makes me wonder what difficulty level you chose. My 2nd run is using the default 2300/2400 and a modest increase to crisis difficulty, when in 2.8 I was playing Grand Admiral with crisis 4x and STILL not really feeling challenged; it just irritated me the way the AI resource bonus worked, vassals would be useless as they lost the AI cheat factor. That lead to playing super-wide and having hours of house keeping at the beginning of every play session to deal with unemployment etc and the rapid pop growth.
I play on grand admiral and grey never has more than 50k max per fleet...
I cannot remember the mid game crises being beefed up, just the fix so the AI could open them more often, which I only saw once before in 1,000s of hours of play and was because I couldn't gain control of an L-gate system without sparking a Galaxy Wide war.
it's just a random event.
But as far as you know, it's still random.
My last game, the AI opened the gates and the L-drakes came out.
But most players don't like to feel ganged up upon by the AI, either.
And considering stellaris is supposed to have a certain amount of roleplay attached to it.
it throws you out of your immersion, especially if you're roleplaying a friendly peaceful empire.
It's NOT only about the Gray Tempest
Otherwise you need high evasion corvette swarm, ships will be one shotted but much fire will miss and be wasted, the large ships have bad tracking; but you need Flak for the nanite fighters and Point Defence for the missiles. Anti-hull weapons work well on the GT, but torpedoes plus 1/4 swarmer missiles will get through especially from corvettes which launch from close in 2nd wave. Then it's all about attrition, replacing your losses and wearing the event spawned GT down, like an FE/AE/crisis which cannot match your economy.
Late game range artillery can have escort carriers with fighters and PD/FK set to ar range too protecting the capital ships, but picket and line destroyers plus corvettes create multiple barriers of fighter/missile defence. The point is you don't want your distant layers all firing at the same time, then being in cool down, an artillery destroyer can fire long range and is faster than the big ships so only the mother ships should be able to hit yours at first when they arrive. It's all about small ships being in range and hopefully evading the big fire power, whilst you have a range advantage with the large weapons so engage first. The Juggernaut from Federations has a module giving an insane +40% range, which with the Target Uplink on a base, provides a huge first strike advantage. Bases with point defence platforms can also be the initial target, so your big ships survive long enough to cause real damage. A combined swarm approach is to cover the entry point with small ships to swamp them eating shots and have another fleet at long range, which has time to get fighters into attack. But then you guarantee losses but inflict damage on the big ships, if they lurk near a jump point, you can send in small ship fleet first to engage, then arrive with fresh shields with the larger ships so a lot of that 100+K fire power is wasted
That's what I said, you get warnings for the POSSIBILITY of the grey tempest...