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It might very well depend on your admirals skill and/or traits, but if so it must be one of the less chosen traits, at least for me. Maybe it's the trickster trait, that'd make sense for that scenario.
As to destroying the station first, that's probably not too hard to do given the right target priorities. I tend to notice that some fleet compositions (mostly large weapon slots) prioritize destroying static enemies over corvettes, for example.
Until we know more however I tend to just not solve the anomaly with the "similar frequencies as our own emergency broadcasts" descriptor because there's just a much bigger chance of messing it up and making my people unhappy than there is of actually saving the escapees. As there's nothing fantastic tied up with it the risk just isn't worth it.
Each time I destroyed both the fleet and base in one attack, event failed.
Could be just a coin toss still, though.
(NB: Yes, it is a 50/50. After loading and repeating process, I failed the event)
But in concurrence with the observations above, i've found in my experience that going in with a smaller fleet raises the chances of success (i thought it was because then i don't full wipe with first strike)
And that selecting the station as the target from outside the station (of course it helps if you attack from a direction where you reach the station first) also helps.
I strongly suspect the hand of RNGesus affects the outcome regardless though.