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If you can hold on long enough for the Crisis to happen and it seems the only way out for you, then do that. This should be a last resort however, as the Crisis is very likely to wipe the floor with everything in the galaxy, because you will still be in a 3-way war, now a 4-way war. So only aim for this if you see really no way out of the WiH.
Since it's already 200 years, I'd say Prethoryn is the most likely candidate. Which, with the new buff, seems, to me, to be by far the strongest Crisis (Unless you get AI when you yourself are Synthetic, or god forbid, End of the Cycle, RIP).
WiH while choosing the League draws a lot of variables depending on whom joins what. You could have a few Fanatical Purifiers in your League but they got battered through those 200 years OR they grew massively...
Your "friends" are likely not helping you out much because they don't tend to pick fights they cannot win. Depending of the state of your Galaxy, you may be fubar and a Crisis may indeed be the best way, but it depends on how much you're pressured. If you can just power up your own empire even if your allies grow weak, you might just come out on top after all. In that case, a Crisis may be detrimental (Especially if it spawns on your side of the galaxy!)
I don't really intend to win this game, I'm more achievement hunting. The main achievement I was aiming for was Slave to the Systems. I have no problem with abandoning this game if Last, Best Hope is out of my reach.
Do AE's also scale with map size? May try again on a smaller map.
Because certain ethos never join AE's, it will be in your favor to help them grow before the WiH starts. The less empires there are (The better ratio for Fanatics etc) the better your chances when joining a League. Empires with any of the other ethos that are really big also have a larger chance to join the League (Or even on their own), but this is never a guarantee and thus usually not worth the risk.
So both making sure the fanatic purifiers etc. grow large while keeping other empires small is your best bet to winning a WiH while joining a League.
It is very tricky to balance, because you don't want yourself to be small either, so sacrificing a lot of fleets can be very detrimental to your success and will likely even turn the fanatic purifiers against you because you're weaker than them.
"The power of Fallen/Awakened empire fleets now scales somewhat to the size of the galaxy"
This means that fallen empires are ~50% stronger in a "1000 star galaxy" than they'd be in a "500 star galaxy". In this context in a WiH, they'd both be considered awakened and scale at 100%.