Hype dies off... The game is dead. (Player number evaluation)

[Tighty-Whitey]

Every hero shooter seems to hit a dead end every now and then and as we already know from past experience with hero shooters, Overwatch was not exception. The player base drained after questionable decisions developers have made along the way of supporting their game. If the game puts free-to-play approach as a forefront and focuses on bringing bits and pieces of content to players from time to time, if it's a live-service game, it is always a challenge for developers of such games to maintain quality in each and every update.

There are sides towards live-service games, with one being a live-service game that lacks content for a substantial amount of time, thus losing players by not being able to introduce improvements or to keep interest of player within the game with proper content updates. This corellates to Overwatch 2, as they've technically released Overwatch 1 yet again with as little effort as possible. And another side: a live-service game with an abundance of updates where the quality dips way too low due to the deadlines that the developers are required to hit and because they cannot make creative, quality updates fast and there is not enough time for their updates to spend in the oven, they take many unbalanced decisions that people did not want. This is what happened to Smite and Paladins. And of course, it is important to stay somewhere in the middle if it's a live-service game, but do the developers of Marvel Rivals understand that? Will they be able to hold the interest of players for long enough and cater to both casual and competitive audiences while making the game feel refreshing and not repetitive for it to hold the dedicated, big player base? Highly unlikely.

There was some fighting game, a name of which i don't quite recall, but it was also related to Marvel. It had a lot of players in the first weeks, but then, very quickly, hundreds of thousands of players left the game. That is quite problematic, it seems as if all Marvel products share the same fate. Also, with Deadlock coming out, another problematic Dota 2 inspired moba with hero shooter elements, the market for such games becomes as saturated as never before. Where exactly will the player numbers for Marvel Rivals in particular land in the long run? If we take a look at the tendency of hero shooters in modern days to be those one-timers that hold the players' interest for quite a while only for players to then migrate to other, more interesting and fresh experiences, we can easily draw a parallel and say that Marvel Rivals will share the same fate as other hero shooters like Overwatch. It's not easy to maintain a large portion of players in the game and it's important to look at many potential factors and outcomes that might occur that might make the game less interesting and forge plans on how to avoid that ahead of time. A dedication from the developers is needed when a development studio is forcing their way into an oversaturated market. Where will the player number go? From here, it will only go down, as the hype for this product in particular will not hold itself infinitely or long, unless it's a development studio that understands what it's doing with planning and being able to meet players' expectations. Let's take a look at the recent peak player number we've observed recently.

PLAYER NUMBERS

The player number for Marvel Rivals in its initial days had reached a peak of 480k players. 4 days ago at the time of writing is when that peak occurred and only four days later it dropped substantially to 380k players. Even less so, as it struggles to maintain 350k players at the time of evaluation. That means in the span of few days, in just less than a week, the game lost around 100k players. That is a big loss. If the game loses that many players in a short period of time, it means the current player number for the game is inflated and due to it being unstable it should drop down to something much lower than that. If we see players losing interest in another hero shooter so quickly with such a large dip, then even players currently playing the game right now are at question on whether they are willing to spend years and years playing a yet another hero shooter with "Marvel" slapped on it. Either way, we'll keep observing the data and see where the player number heads after that, but the prognosis for the player numbers and its extremely high dip in hype is just very dim for the future of Marvel Rivals. That means the game will lose players gradually and in the coming months might drop sub 100k quite easily, as the developers will certainly struggle to maintain high number of players down the line.

Update

Usually in order to speak well about Marvel Rivals and to feed themselves with misconceptions, some say that the player number depends on timezones and that during the day, people are either at work or studies. That turned out to be a fallacy, as at the time of writing, it is now evening around Europe and the player number situations not only hasn't improved, but worsened for the game with a heavy loss of 100k players down the line. Now we observe 200k players instead of 300k+ which is a severe drop. Numbers dropped faster than expected.

Update 2

Apparently the majority of the so-called "players" displayed by Steam for Marvel Rivals are fake. The game is plagued by bots set up by the developers to program players to think that the game is doing well and to also help newbies win matches. That explains why there is a dissonance between people being interested in the game and the actual numbers, because the game is simply not as popular as people thought. This is a fraud, meaning the numbers displayed aren't a representation of the actual player number. It is much lower than that and the game is on a heavy decline.

[BurntBurrito]

Publicado originalmente por Medusa:

Seems like quite a ridiculous amount of text to claim a game will be dead.
When is a game dead anyway ?
If it has 50k players worldwide average on a day on all platforms i 'd consider it alive and kicking. Currently it has much more, so...
The Finals is even still getting updates and i think that game is played way less, even though it is actually extremely good.

I played a game with an average of 8 players in the evening for like 3 months and i still found games to play during those times. It always pisses me off when people say a game is dying and the game in question has like 100k players lol, they dont know truly what a dead game is. Also that game in question is darwin project, is a good game. Sadly the average is now 3 lol. Their community was toxic and gave up any chance of revival, spouting the same non sense as this guy, led to its downfall. If people think a game is dying then people will stop playing it. This guy is just spreading propaganda, also he doesnt even own the game. So i bet he knows what hes doing.

[SyntaX.ErroR]

Checking his profile out, it is probably the most disturbing profile on Steam.

[BurntBurrito]

Publicado originalmente por SyntaX.ErroR:

Checking his profile out, it is probably the most disturbing profile on Steam.

meh ive seen worse

[Tighty-Whitey]

Publicado originalmente por Rainy:

tldr :OMgosh:

you should really read it more extensively. it answers a lot of questions about a mixed reception towards marvel rivals.

[KOS-MOS]

I find a game in less than 5 seconds

Overwatch? Several minutes

MR is far from dead

[Zacki]

i literally play pso which averages 1k ppl a day and i still play it all the time whilst having fun.

[Commander Moron]

This guy is notorious for just posting bait guys

Publicado originalmente por Cuss-word Sayer:

This guy hops from game to game making this same dumb ass post. He should be banned from posting on steam

[BurntBurrito]

Publicado originalmente por Commander Moron:

This guy is notorious for just posting bait guys

Publicado originalmente por Cuss-word Sayer:

This guy hops from game to game making this same dumb ass post. He should be banned from posting on steam

dang thats crazy, guess i was right on the money about propaganda

[Jazzratoon]

https://steamcommunity.com/app/2767030#scrollTop=2400
Ignore this toad; it's clearly a bait farmer. He doesn't even play this game. Also, nice Vac-Ban, what virus-ridden cheats were you using?

[Fentanyl Prime]

everyones so obsessed with numbers find a different hobby lmao

[I might be Batman]

Publicado originalmente por Tighty-Whitey:

Every hero shooter seems to hit a dead end every now and then and as we already know from past experience with hero shooters, Overwatch was not exception. The player base drained after questionable decisions developers have made along the way of supporting their game. If the game puts free-to-play approach as a forefront and focuses on bringing bits and pieces of content to players from time to time, if it's a live-service game, it is always a challenge for developers of such games to maintain quality in each and every update.

There are sides towards live-service games, with one being a live-service game that lacks content for a substantial amount of time, thus losing players by not being able to introduce improvements or to keep interest of player within the game with proper content updates. This corellates to Overwatch 2, as they've technically released Overwatch 1 yet again with as little effort as possible. And another side: a live-service game with an abundance of updates where the quality dips way too low due to the deadlines that the developers are required to hit and because they cannot make creative, quality updates fast and there is not enough time for their updates to spend in the oven, they take many unbalanced decisions that people did not want. This is what happened to Smite and Paladins. And of course, it is important to stay somewhere in the middle if it's a live-service game, but do the developers of Marvel Rivals understand that? Will they be able to hold the interest of players for long enough and cater to both casual and competitive audiences while making the game feel refreshing and not repetitive for it to hold the dedicated, big player base? Highly unlikely.

There was some fighting game, a name of which i don't quite recall, but it was also related to Marvel. It had a lot of players in the first weeks, but then, very quickly, hundreds of thousands of players left the game. That is quite problematic, it seems as if all Marvel products share the same fate. Also, with Deadlock coming out, another problematic Dota 2 inspired moba with hero shooter elements, the market for such games becomes as saturated as never before. Where exactly will the player numbers for Marvel Rivals in particular land in the long run? If we take a look at the tendency of hero shooters in modern days to be those one-timers that hold the players' interest for quite a while only for players to then migrate to other, more interesting and fresh experiences, we can easily draw a parallel and say that Marvel Rivals will share the same fate as other hero shooters like Overwatch. It's not easy to maintain a large portion of players in the game and it's important to look at many potential factors and outcomes that might occur that might make the game less interesting and forge plans on how to avoid that ahead of time. A dedication from the developers is needed when a development studio is forcing their way into an oversaturated market. Where will the player number go? From here, it will only go down, as the hype for this product in particular will not hold itself infinitely or long, unless it's a development studio that understands what it's doing with planning and being able to meet players' expectations. Let's take a look at the recent peak player number we've observed recently.

PLAYER NUMBERS

The player number for Marvel Rivals in its initial days had reached a peak of 480k players. 4 days ago at the time of writing is when that peak occurred and only four days later it dropped substantially to 380k players. Even less so, as it struggles to maintain 350k players at the time of evaluation. That means in the span of few days, in just less than a week, the game lost around 100k players. That is a big loss. If the game loses that many players in a short period of time, it means the current player number for the game is inflated and due to it being unstable it should drop down to something much lower than that. If we see players losing interest in another hero shooter so quickly with such a large dip, then even players currently playing the game right now are at question on whether they are willing to spend years and years playing a yet another hero shooter with "Marvel" slapped on it. Either way, we'll keep observing the data and see where the player number heads after that, but the prognosis for the player numbers and its extremely high dip in hype is just very dim for the future of Marvel Rivals. That means the game will lose players gradually and in the coming months might drop sub 100k quite easily, as the developers will certainly struggle to maintain high number of players down the line.

ow2 fan boi oO
it was announced that they had hit the 10 million mark... yep fan boi

[Mochan]

Publicado originalmente por pasta:

you're looking at pc players, it's crossplay. if smite and paladins has managed to keep servers running this long then rivals will surely be fine lmao.

Don't underestimate NetEase. Once Human peaked at 250k or so players a few months ago, now it's down to 30k players. Netease abandons games like nobody's day old lunchbox.

[someone]

I appreciate the time and thought you’ve put into analyzing the situation surrounding Marvel Rivals. The challenges of live-service games, especially in the hero-shooter genre, are very real and worth discussing. However, I feel the assertion that the game is "dead" or heading that way is both premature and overly dismissive of the current state of Marvel Rivals. Let me address your points and provide a clearer perspective.

1. Natural Player Drop-Off Is Not a Death Sentence
You mentioned the decline from the initial peak of 480k players to the current 270k+ players. This is a drop, yes, but it’s also completely normal in the lifecycle of any multiplayer game. Let’s break it down:

When a game launches, especially one tied to a massive brand like Marvel, there’s an initial surge in player numbers driven by marketing, curiosity, and fans who want to experience the game firsthand. Many players log in during the first few days, only to realize it’s not their preferred style of game, or they were never planning to stick around long-term. This doesn’t mean the game has failed—it means the player base is stabilizing as it finds its core audience.

To put it in context:

Maintaining 270k+ active players just days after launch is a huge achievement. Many multiplayer games would envy those numbers months or even years after release.
Even established titles like Overwatch or Apex Legends experienced similar drops in their early days. This didn’t stop them from becoming cornerstones of their genre.
The important factor isn’t just the raw numbers today but how the developers address feedback and continue to support the game moving forward. If Marvel Rivals can retain a strong core audience—and 270k players suggest it already has one—it’s far from “dead.”

2. Live-Service Games Face Unique Challenges, But They’re Not Doomed
You’re absolutely correct that live-service games often struggle to maintain player interest, especially in an oversaturated market. However, this doesn’t mean they can’t succeed. Let’s take a closer look at the two extremes you mentioned:

Lack of Content (e.g., Overwatch 2)
Yes, some live-service games lose players due to slow content releases. But the key lesson here is that games like Overwatch 2 haven’t failed outright. Despite criticism, they continue to have active player bases and generate revenue because they address these issues over time. The Marvel Rivals team has the advantage of learning from these examples and prioritizing steady, meaningful updates.

Quantity Over Quality (e.g., Smite, Paladins)
On the other hand, rushing content at the expense of quality can also harm a game’s reputation. This is where the challenge lies: finding a middle ground. However, judging Marvel Rivals based on the assumption that it will fall into one of these extremes seems unfair. It’s still early days, and the developers deserve the chance to prove they can maintain both quality and consistency.

3. Player Retention vs. Player Attraction
Another point to consider is that retaining 270k+ active players so soon after launch is a testament to the game’s potential. These are not small numbers. In fact:

Many multiplayer games, even highly successful ones, operate comfortably with far fewer concurrent players.
The sheer scale of Marvel Rivals’ active player base shows that there’s significant interest and engagement.
Even if the numbers stabilize at a lower level, the game can still thrive. Valorant, CS:GO, and other big titles have shown that you don’t need millions of concurrent players at all times to maintain a vibrant, dedicated community.

4. Marvel's Unique Advantage
Marvel as a brand brings something no other hero shooter can offer: an emotional connection to its characters. Players aren’t just picking random heroes—they’re playing as Iron Man, Spider-Man, or Thor, characters they’ve loved for years. This connection gives Marvel Rivals a significant edge over other hero shooters that have to work harder to establish their rosters.

Historically, Marvel-themed games have seen varying levels of success. Some, like Marvel’s Spider-Man, became massive hits. Others, like the fighting game you referenced (possibly Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite), struggled to retain players. The difference often comes down to execution and post-launch support. It’s far too early to assume Marvel Rivals will follow the less successful examples without giving it time to grow.

5. The State of the Genre and Market Saturation
You’re right that the hero-shooter market is crowded, with games like Deadlock and others vying for attention. But market saturation doesn’t automatically spell doom for new entrants. It means they need to stand out, which Marvel Rivals already does by leveraging its iconic IP and focusing on lore-driven gameplay.

Moreover, some players are drawn to Marvel Rivals because it’s something familiar yet fresh. It combines elements of a hero shooter with beloved characters, creating a unique offering in the market.

6. Is Marvel Rivals "Dead"? Absolutely Not.
To say the game is "dead" because of an initial decline or assumptions about its future is not just premature—it’s dismissive of the evidence we have now. The game has:

A huge active player base of over 270k players.
A well-known IP that attracts a broad audience.
Plenty of room to grow as the developers refine the experience and introduce updates.
Declaring it “dead” at this stage ignores the vibrant community that’s already forming around the game. It’s fine to have concerns about its long-term prospects, but to suggest that it’s already failed is an exaggeration.

Final Thoughts
While I understand your skepticism, it’s important to give Marvel Rivals the opportunity to prove itself. Live-service games are marathons, not sprints. They’re judged by their ability to adapt and evolve over time. Right now, Marvel Rivals is far from “dead.” With 270k+ active players and a lot of potential, it’s more accurate to say that it’s just getting started.

Let’s revisit this discussion in a few months when we have more data on how the game is evolving. For now, the numbers and the community suggest it’s thriving—not failing.

(I hope this answers this thread)

[RedX]

People have lives, shocking info, I know.

[Tighty-Whitey]

Publicado originalmente por RedX:

People have lives, shocking info, I know.

people will move on with their lives from marvel rivals once it's past its hype days.