Hype dies off... The game is dead. (Player number evaluation)

[Tighty-Whitey]

Every hero shooter seems to hit a dead end every now and then and as we already know from past experience with hero shooters, Overwatch was not exception. The player base drained after questionable decisions developers have made along the way of supporting their game. If the game puts free-to-play approach as a forefront and focuses on bringing bits and pieces of content to players from time to time, if it's a live-service game, it is always a challenge for developers of such games to maintain quality in each and every update.

There are sides towards live-service games, with one being a live-service game that lacks content for a substantial amount of time, thus losing players by not being able to introduce improvements or to keep interest of player within the game with proper content updates. This corellates to Overwatch 2, as they've technically released Overwatch 1 yet again with as little effort as possible. And another side: a live-service game with an abundance of updates where the quality dips way too low due to the deadlines that the developers are required to hit and because they cannot make creative, quality updates fast and there is not enough time for their updates to spend in the oven, they take many unbalanced decisions that people did not want. This is what happened to Smite and Paladins. And of course, it is important to stay somewhere in the middle if it's a live-service game, but do the developers of Marvel Rivals understand that? Will they be able to hold the interest of players for long enough and cater to both casual and competitive audiences while making the game feel refreshing and not repetitive for it to hold the dedicated, big player base? Highly unlikely.

There was some fighting game, a name of which i don't quite recall, but it was also related to Marvel. It had a lot of players in the first weeks, but then, very quickly, hundreds of thousands of players left the game. That is quite problematic, it seems as if all Marvel products share the same fate. Also, with Deadlock coming out, another problematic Dota 2 inspired moba with hero shooter elements, the market for such games becomes as saturated as never before. Where exactly will the player numbers for Marvel Rivals in particular land in the long run? If we take a look at the tendency of hero shooters in modern days to be those one-timers that hold the players' interest for quite a while only for players to then migrate to other, more interesting and fresh experiences, we can easily draw a parallel and say that Marvel Rivals will share the same fate as other hero shooters like Overwatch. It's not easy to maintain a large portion of players in the game and it's important to look at many potential factors and outcomes that might occur that might make the game less interesting and forge plans on how to avoid that ahead of time. A dedication from the developers is needed when a development studio is forcing their way into an oversaturated market. Where will the player number go? From here, it will only go down, as the hype for this product in particular will not hold itself infinitely or long, unless it's a development studio that understands what it's doing with planning and being able to meet players' expectations. Let's take a look at the recent peak player number we've observed recently.

PLAYER NUMBERS

The player number for Marvel Rivals in its initial days had reached a peak of 480k players. 4 days ago at the time of writing is when that peak occurred and only four days later it dropped substantially to 380k players. Even less so, as it struggles to maintain 350k players at the time of evaluation. That means in the span of few days, in just less than a week, the game lost around 100k players. That is a big loss. If the game loses that many players in a short period of time, it means the current player number for the game is inflated and due to it being unstable it should drop down to something much lower than that. If we see players losing interest in another hero shooter so quickly with such a large dip, then even players currently playing the game right now are at question on whether they are willing to spend years and years playing a yet another hero shooter with "Marvel" slapped on it. Either way, we'll keep observing the data and see where the player number heads after that, but the prognosis for the player numbers and its extremely high dip in hype is just very dim for the future of Marvel Rivals. That means the game will lose players gradually and in the coming months might drop sub 100k quite easily, as the developers will certainly struggle to maintain high number of players down the line.

Update

Usually in order to speak well about Marvel Rivals and to feed themselves with misconceptions, some say that the player number depends on timezones and that during the day, people are either at work or studies. That turned out to be a fallacy, as at the time of writing, it is now evening around Europe and the player number situations not only hasn't improved, but worsened for the game with a heavy loss of 100k players down the line. Now we observe 200k players instead of 300k+ which is a severe drop. Numbers dropped faster than expected.

Update 2

Apparently the majority of the so-called "players" displayed by Steam for Marvel Rivals are fake. The game is plagued by bots set up by the developers to program players to think that the game is doing well and to also help newbies win matches. That explains why there is a dissonance between people being interested in the game and the actual numbers, because the game is simply not as popular as people thought. This is a fraud, meaning the numbers displayed aren't a representation of the actual player number. It is much lower than that and the game is on a heavy decline.

[MiseRawRble.]

Messaggio originale di goarmyrangers68:

Messaggio originale di Your New Daddy:

No.

not yet lmao but ow2 is losing players to this day lmao. ow in general is gonna die out quite quickly I'd say in around a year it's gonna lose 20% of its playerbase not like its losing 700k as it is.

ow2 does not lose players. it has a concentrated community, while marvel rivals will not have one. it will plummet extremely.

[EmperorVolo]

Hypes been going since alpha so like 5 months.

[☭Rosa]

Messaggio originale di JVM:

Peak players at 450k today, Overwatch 2 was 31k

to me is kinda wild that there are still 31k ppl playing overbloat.

[MiseRawRble.]

Messaggio originale di EmperorVolo:

Hypes been going since alpha so like 5 months.

any hype ends eventually, people know it.

[Steve]

This guy wore out his ChatGPT description posting so many of these.

[OMEGA]

Messaggio originale di MiseRawRble.:

Messaggio originale di EmperorVolo:

Hypes been going since alpha so like 5 months.

any hype ends eventually, people know it.

And the players staying is the true question

[OMEGA]

Messaggio originale di MiseRawRble.:

Messaggio originale di goarmyrangers68:

not yet lmao but ow2 is losing players to this day lmao. ow in general is gonna die out quite quickly I'd say in around a year it's gonna lose 20% of its playerbase not like its losing 700k as it is.

ow2 does not lose players. it has a concentrated community, while marvel rivals will not have one. it will plummet extremely.

Where's you crystal ball how do you know

[Arc]

I open game in steam stats
In paint
Edit the number to 0
game dead

[₢ Cryptic Chipp]

Messaggio originale di MiseRawRble.:

Messaggio originale di goarmyrangers68:

not yet lmao but ow2 is losing players to this day lmao. ow in general is gonna die out quite quickly I'd say in around a year it's gonna lose 20% of its playerbase not like its losing 700k as it is.

ow2 does not lose players. it has a concentrated community, while marvel rivals will not have one. it will plummet extremely.

Month Peak Gain %Gain
Last 30 days 38,398 -4,743 -11.0%
December 2024 43,141 -13,466 -23.8%
November 2024 56,607 -1,643 -2.8%
October 2024 58,250 -1,792 -3.0%

Do you wanna continue with that lie?

[MiseRawRble.]

Messaggio originale di ₢ Cryptic Chipp:

Messaggio originale di MiseRawRble.:

ow2 does not lose players. it has a concentrated community, while marvel rivals will not have one. it will plummet extremely.

Month Peak Gain %Gain
Last 30 days 38,398 -4,743 -11.0%
December 2024 43,141 -13,466 -23.8%
November 2024 56,607 -1,643 -2.8%
October 2024 58,250 -1,792 -3.0%

Do you wanna continue with that lie?

you should learn to distinct truth from lies. those numbers are fake, they do not represent what's going on with marvel rivals. you've just been proven wrong.

[Dark Lucifer]

Messaggio originale di Tighty-Whitey:

Every hero shooter seems to hit a dead end every now and then and as we already know from past experience with hero shooters, Overwatch was not exception. The player base drained after questionable decisions developers have made along the way of supporting their game. If the game puts free-to-play approach as a forefront and focuses on bringing bits and pieces of content to players from time to time, if it's a live-service game, it is always a challenge for developers of such games to maintain quality in each and every update.

There are sides towards live-service games, with one being a live-service game that lacks content for a substantial amount of time, thus losing players by not being able to introduce improvements or to keep interest of player within the game with proper content updates. This corellates to Overwatch 2, as they've technically released Overwatch 1 yet again with as little effort as possible. And another side: a live-service game with an abundance of updates where the quality dips way too low due to the deadlines that the developers are required to hit and because they cannot make creative, quality updates fast and there is not enough time for their updates to spend in the oven, they take many unbalanced decisions that people did not want. This is what happened to Smite and Paladins. And of course, it is important to stay somewhere in the middle if it's a live-service game, but do the developers of Marvel Rivals understand that? Will they be able to hold the interest of players for long enough and cater to both casual and competitive audiences while making the game feel refreshing and not repetitive for it to hold the dedicated, big player base? Highly unlikely.

There was some fighting game, a name of which i don't quite recall, but it was also related to Marvel. It had a lot of players in the first weeks, but then, very quickly, hundreds of thousands of players left the game. That is quite problematic, it seems as if all Marvel products share the same fate. Also, with Deadlock coming out, another problematic Dota 2 inspired moba with hero shooter elements, the market for such games becomes as saturated as never before. Where exactly will the player numbers for Marvel Rivals in particular land in the long run? If we take a look at the tendency of hero shooters in modern days to be those one-timers that hold the players' interest for quite a while only for players to then migrate to other, more interesting and fresh experiences, we can easily draw a parallel and say that Marvel Rivals will share the same fate as other hero shooters like Overwatch. It's not easy to maintain a large portion of players in the game and it's important to look at many potential factors and outcomes that might occur that might make the game less interesting and forge plans on how to avoid that ahead of time. A dedication from the developers is needed when a development studio is forcing their way into an oversaturated market. Where will the player number go? From here, it will only go down, as the hype for this product in particular will not hold itself infinitely or long, unless it's a development studio that understands what it's doing with planning and being able to meet players' expectations. Let's take a look at the recent peak player number we've observed recently.

PLAYER NUMBERS

The player number for Marvel Rivals in its initial days had reached a peak of 480k players. 4 days ago at the time of writing is when that peak occurred and only four days later it dropped substantially to 380k players. Even less so, as it struggles to maintain 350k players at the time of evaluation. That means in the span of few days, in just less than a week, the game lost around 100k players. That is a big loss. If the game loses that many players in a short period of time, it means the current player number for the game is inflated and due to it being unstable it should drop down to something much lower than that. If we see players losing interest in another hero shooter so quickly with such a large dip, then even players currently playing the game right now are at question on whether they are willing to spend years and years playing a yet another hero shooter with "Marvel" slapped on it. Either way, we'll keep observing the data and see where the player number heads after that, but the prognosis for the player numbers and its extremely high dip in hype is just very dim for the future of Marvel Rivals. That means the game will lose players gradually and in the coming months might drop sub 100k quite easily, as the developers will certainly struggle to maintain high number of players down the line.

Update

Usually in order to speak well about Marvel Rivals and to feed themselves with misconceptions, some say that the player number depends on timezones and that during the day, people are either at work or studies. That turned out to be a fallacy, as at the time of writing, it is now evening around Europe and the player number situations not only hasn't improved, but worsened for the game with a heavy loss of 100k players down the line. Now we observe 200k players instead of 300k+ which is a severe drop. Numbers dropped faster than expected.

Update 2

Apparently the majority of the so-called "players" displayed by Steam for Marvel Rivals are fake. The game is plagued by bots set up by the developers to program players to think that the game is doing well and to also help newbies win matches. That explains why there is a dissonance between people being interested in the game and the actual numbers, because the game is simply not as popular as people thought. This is a fraud, meaning the numbers displayed aren't a representation of the actual player number. It is much lower than that and the game is on a heavy decline.

https://youtu.be/nzNQKnyVUDo?feature=shared

[FrostyShock]

lmao cope, go back to your dying OW2 bro

[Rayman.]

this thread still going on? Sheesh

[Data]

Messaggio originale di Rayman.:

this thread still going on? Sheesh

I'm unsure when mods close threads like this but it clearly is just designed to cause issues. They do it in numerous other communities. Just report and move on if you feel it's appropriate.

[Darth OG]

the game has 300k players atm