Fated summon chances

[Mantve]

Heya, just recently started playing and got the summon scroll from the event. When I did the first summon, it immediately landed on my chosen character.
Are the chances actually huge for the first time summons or did I get hella lucky?

[Kalnan]

The game tells you the probabilities.

[Ruldra]

I have a theory that anyone who rolled on the fated summon yesterday got their chosen character. I got mine on the first roll and on the discord server several people got theirs too. But I'd need to ask around to confirm that.

Normally the odds are very low (only 5%).

[koboldlord]

A 5% isn't that uncommon, and the people on the same discord that didn't get theirs on the first roll probably didn't think to speak up. If there's a hundred people in the room five of them would be expected to get that lucky, and a discord channel probably has more than a hundred people.

I got mine on the tenth roll, which is still pretty good. It was lucky that I had ten scrolls stockpiled; I wanted to see if I could use them all at once with the right-hand button on the summon screen. Turns out you can't, and that button is only for jade.

[marttini7]

"Summoning 10 times" means that the odds for characters are increased by 50%? Or if each summon is done individually, it still be 5% for each try, not giving us any surprises? Any mathematician here to explain better?

[koboldlord]

It's just ten rolls of the dice, with one slight adjustments.

If you get the absolute worst possible results from the 10-summon, which is 10 blue gifts, it takes mercy on you and upgrades one of them to a purple gift.

Since it is completely random, you will average approximately a 50% chance of a new character per 10-summon over a large enough sample size of attempts, but you may get streaks with no characters and you may get multiple characters in a single attempt. A couple of the hidden achievements involve getting particularly lucky in this way, and getting multiple characters or multiple decorations from a single 10-roll.

For most practical purposes, summoning 10 times is just a way to get the same stuff as you would have gotten with single summons, but with five minutes fewer unnecessary clicking.

[Kalnan]

Originally posted by marttini7:

"Summoning 10 times" means that the odds for characters are increased by 50%? Or if each summon is done individually, it still be 5% for each try, not giving us any surprises? Any mathematician here to explain better?

No, it doesn't. The chances for characters stay the same. It's a 5% bracket. But "the more dice your throw"/the more pulls you do, the higher the chance you hit the bracket.

Like basic probability. (random example) To roll a 6 with a six-sided die, is a chance of 1 in 6 (16%). If you have two dice, the chance to hit the 6 at least once is 30%. More dice (more tickets/attempts) make it more probable you hit the bracket you're going for.

And to correct some nonsense that has been written: A ten-pull has a statistical chance of 40% to hit the 5% bracket (a character) at least once. A purple present is guaranteed in a ten-pull no matter what else you get. A fated character has a 60% up-rate (60% of the 5%) which means an overall chance of 3%.

[Milkymalk]

So it makes (marginal) sense to do 10-pulls instead of doing single pulls whenever I have one ready, did I understand that correctly?

[marttini7]

Originally posted by Milkymalk:

So it makes (marginal) sense to do 10-pulls instead of doing single pulls whenever I have one ready, did I understand that correctly?

I never tried to accumulate 10 free scrolls to see if it's possible to do 10-summon with free scrolls, but i think it's not possible. Even then, it would be very heavy for you to wait this to happen (playing just by free).

I have many hours of play for now, and my maximum number of pulls (tries) is actually 6. Neither of them got characters, but i got decorations quite frequently... making chances alive yet, for characters, as i reached the 15% odd (decorations) relatively easy.

[koboldlord]

You cannot do the 10-pull with summon scrolls. I tried. The 1-pull will switch back and forth between scroll or jade depending on if you have any scrolls, but the 10-pull won't turn into a pile of 10 scrolls even if you have them.

Assuming you're using jade, the main reason to do the 10-pull is to reduce the amount of time clicking through when you honestly don't care about most of the results. Blue gifts are probably just getting recycled anyway.

The second reason to do the 10-pull is there are three hidden achievements that require using the 10-pull, and therefore also require buying the premium currency. You get them for getting lucky 10-pull rolls where you get multiple characters or multiple decorations in the same 10-pull.

A vanishingly small additional reason to do the 10-pulls if you're using premium currency anyway is if you get the exact results of 10 blue gifts with zero purple gifts, decorations, or characters, you instead get 9 blue gifts and 1 purple gift.

[Kalnan]

Originally posted by Milkymalk:

So it makes (marginal) sense to do 10-pulls instead of doing single pulls whenever I have one ready, did I understand that correctly?

Yes. I'd say it's more than marginal. A guaranteed purple present is 25 gold dust (aside from the fact you need purple presents to bond a character for the bonus costume), which is 0,5 of another summoning scroll. A blue present is 5 dust and a green 1.
I'd always try to do ten-pulls.

[marttini7]

It comes to a point when, if there's no event running, you can't expect to gain many coppers or whatever other reward, unless you are Silver+ and winning a lot of lootboxes. When you reach that point, you start to slow-down your frequency of play — not because the game is bad, but because you understood the mechanism.

[Ruldra]

Even at silver+ the rate of rewards is super slow. The only realistic way of gaining purple bags and scrolls is via events. Thankfully they have one every month.

But as you said, I find myself playing a lot during events and then putting the game down until the next one.

[marttini7]

I'm already on my 22th pull, and none of them got characters. I'm starting to think that is not true about "20th pull == 100%"; it continues to be a collection of individual tries, and each of them still be 5% (even if you try a 10x pull).

I logged every day for one month (by subscription fee) and got only single decoration (1/10)... the rest was a mixture between blue and pink bonds. Obviously that we can trade bond gifts for scrolls, but it has a limit of 5 scrolls per month.

I don't know why they do that... they're trying to difficultate our lives, we who like (and pay) for their game?? Or they're just lying about the character's percentage chances?🤦🏻‍♀

[Aoitenshi]

Originally posted by marttini7:

I'm already on my 22th pull, and none of them got characters. I'm starting to think that is not true about "20th pull == 100%"; it continues to be a collection of individual tries, and each of them still be 5% (even if you try a 10x pull).

This is not Arknights where your chance of obtaining a character increases per pull. The game already provides you with all the numbers, so all you need to do is simple math.

If every pull only has a 5% chance to give you a character, then the probability of you getting at least one character after 22 pulls = 1-(0.95^22) = 67%.

[Ruldra]

"It takes about 20 pulls to get a character" is an average, not 100%. I know someone who got his first character on his 77th attempt. Meanwhile I'm at 40 and have 5 characters and multiple decorations. It's all luck, really.

It's all meant to frustrate and make you spend money to roll more.