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I'm not so sure of that. There is still a good amount of luck in this game. I have games where I discard a terminal that has 2 already on the field and get Ron'd anyway. Sometimes the right play doesn't work anyway.
Seeing two 9ps discarded only and having another in your hand is only enough to tell you that no one has a pair of them waiting to become a triplet. But it doesn't rule out the possibility of 78p, and that's the truly dangerous wait since this two-sided ryanmen is a strong shape players will aim for.
The danger level of a tile is more dependent on how many copies of the surrounding tiles you can see - if it's late in the hand and you still don't see 78p anywhere, there's a good chance someone has them in their hand. In fact, if you see some of the 69p but still don't see 78p, it's even more likely that someone is looking for the remaining 69p to complete their 78p.
As for defence there is more skill there involved than a luck factor if you can actually read discards and the state of the game. that being said there are times where literally no tile in you hand is safe to drop and the probability of this happening increases the more you open your hand
But yeah thanks for that knowledge I'll defo utilise that information in future games
I'll no longer be taking the highway to the danger zone
Granted, but it's certainly safer to play than a 5p right smack dab in the middle with none of them discarded and nothing surrounding it in site. So relatively speaking, 9p is the safer discard. Besides, when you Riichi, you have no control over what is discarded. The computer does it for you. So when I get Ron'd right after a Riichi, that's not my fault. It was out of my control completely. And that happens to me a lot.
so in this situation it is one of the safer tile to drop no?
I also don't get why Riichi is being brought up when talking about defence
you literally can't play defence after you declare riichi
and if you declare riichi after someone else has already done so then expect to get ron'd
Riichi is a fools game and should be avoided imo
edit: unless you have a 3 han, 5 han etc hand or there have been alot of kans or if you have Toitoi and much to my dismay Chiitoitsu
There's apparently nobody in the silver lobby that does that, though.
If you got some other points in there and don't have a proper win condition yet, then it's more possibly worth some risk.
In the context of teaching beginners, I would say that when in doubt, you should Riichi. Over time you can start to learn when dama is preferable, but any time you're not sure, just go ahead and Riichi.
Reasons to Riichi:
Reasons to dama:
Sometimes you can deduce a guaranteed safe tile, based on their discards and recent discards by other players. Other times you have to make your best guess and hope you're right. Sometimes their winning tile is stupid and unguessable, like a pair wait for an honor tile that already has two copies in the discards. Sometimes they picked an intentionally stupid wait because they thought somebody might fold and a really stupid tile to wait on is ironically more likely to get dropped.
People seem to talk about folding like it's a 100% thing, but it's more of a 75% to 90% sort of thing, most of the time. Eventually you often run out of safe tiles and have to start guessing. Sometimes you still deal in, just a lot less often, and ultimately if you can lower the number of times you deal into a 12,000 point hand you'll do better overall even if you can't completely eliminate those games entirely. That's okay.
This is a suji trap right?
1-4-7
2-5-8
3-6-9
If a players has discarded 5, they can't have 34 waiting on 2-5 or else they'd be in furiten. So by process of elimination you can infer that 2 is statistically safer than other tiles you don't have information about.
But you can't rule out 13, 22, or 2 tanki. If they actually are waiting on a tile that's suji to their discards, that's called a suji trap.
I would not deliberately try to set it up, but if you're reaching tenpai with a choice of one pair wait or another pair wait you might consider a Hell Wait over a non-descript tile that is normally a better choice.
I know Jigoku is when you're waiting on 1 remaining tile of a set and worst case that tile can be in the dead wall