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Basing this off of PoE1.
It would be nice if they worked like the original PoE1 Chance orbs where you could get a blue or rare, atleast then its not completely wasting things and you could still get something useful.
the rates for this kind of stuff is never publicly disclosed. . .so no one but GGG knows.
Check poe2db for the list of uniques.
Unless you're rolling for semi-common uniques Orbs of Chance are really just lottery tickets.