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The only chance it has is if the organizers make up some BS to kick out Wukong.
On the smaller side of games, I really liked Prince of Persia.
Real debate to be had is amongst the indie releases, lol.
Honestly? I think it should be nominated in the category "RPG of the year" but as much as I like it I feel like it's a little too average in some areas (f.e. I think the UI is HORRIBLE and cluttered which is normally their strongsuit). It has some very cool "traditional" RPG aspects (how your "Personas"/Archetypes basically represent traditional class archetypes a.s.o.) but I feel like games like Unicorn Overlord, Astrobot and the Elden Ring DLC (last one is very subjective) had more "impact".
Metaphor's graphics are very .... "meh" and this time it isn't saved by stylish menus and such (unlike P5) because eventhough the game has style, it simply lacks polish in the artstyle department. There is also some big issues with general optimization.
I think it's a good/very solid game from what I've played so far tho - just simply not a 10/10.
Edit: Forgot WuKong - haven't played that one but just looking at it and listening to all the feedback (brought a lot of joy to fans of the Hack&Slay genre) I'd also think that one could win GOTY.
Astrobot and FF are PS exclusives. So in this case it would be only PS GOTY, not a global one.
Metaphor doesn't even have a User rating yet - and it's the only one worth a damn.
shadow of the erdtree is good but it's a DLC so i don't know if it can even be considered a game
astro bot is very good for a short platformer
Rebirth is okay
and then there's metaphor
i'd say metaphor has a pretty good chance to win, it's only competition being a short platformer and a DLC