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For reference. I know I used more than 100 bait but less than 200 to catch 3 Pike
This is true, Orcas only have a 5% chance to appear with Luring Rod and Super Bait.
I still don't know why they didn't include the fishing tables with the guide, but oh well.
That means the ONLY bait that you can catch Pike is the Super Bait and even then you have a 5% chance. And you need 3 of them.
6 of the fish that you have a 10% chance with and 9 of the fish you have a 25% chance to get.
The Koi has a 50% chance (but you don't need any of them) and you have a 10% chance to miss.
Also, keep in mind that Pike sell for 1500 and are the least valuable of the 4 posibilities. So as long as you catch anything, you're good.