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i think the kind of workshops also have a effect and while i never actualy payed much attention to it i heard that they are atleast partialy randomised each run
Also workshops and caravans do tend to profit for me pretty consistently (not much but with quantitie as well as Time it does add up)
also they do act as a sort of information gatherer as well (with the perks for it)
I generaly tend to see Workshops more as long term investment that just act to counteract wages while caravans are more for a Trading focused gameplay (because you are gonna loose them at some point)
As for inflating value of stuff like jewelry i am not aware of any way (though and some raw materials can be increased bye sieging or razing villages)
Also if a Town just suffered from a siege and you are the first to enter afterwards food usualy pays quite a lot
supply is determined by workshops, (which are randomized btw.) and village hearts.
So if there are bunch of low prospertiy towns with bunch of silversmiths price for jewerly goes down.
Caravans only redistribute goods.
Look for settlements that have recently been under siege for a long time with no goods coming in or going out, prices there can be ridiculous sometimes compared to other cities.
At the start of each game, they randomized the workshops, and thus most workshop product prices varies, and that drives the demand for said workshop's input product to be different each game as well. As for the mules, locations with horse ranchers should always be cheaper than locations without ranchers nearby, but prices will go up if the ranches are sacked/peasants killed often.