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Really, why is it that crucial to get your first fort as early as possible?
Let's look on the worst case: "castle with 200 resources, and two adjacent provinces for 100 resources each". Castle will draw, say, +100 resources from the each one of non-castle provinces, giving you 400 in castle province, and still 100 in the each non-castle one, because half of resources cannot be exploited without castle (and so 100 resources ones are actually invisible 200). Build a castle in the neighbouring province, and distribution will became 200+100 and 200+100 in castles, and 0 for 3rd one. So you effectively will change 400+100+100 for 300+300+0. Same 600 resources, but first castle became poorer. :) Build 3rd castle, and it will establish final distribution of 200-200-200.
In reality castles cannot draw so _much_ resources (so until you'll cross "half of real resources" border, you'll get resources from the thin air with each castle). Also, same "administration value" that determine share of drawn resources, also give you _bonus_ resources, out of nowhere. So even in the case above it will be something like 220-220-220 where it was only 600 initially (and 300 visible without any castles).
Most players will aim to complete their first fort by Spring/Summer of Year 2, so those players who do NOT have that second base will have, on average, only *half* the Research power of competing players for a significant amount of time.
In single-player games, of course, PD can be more useful, as the AI is reluctant to attack any province with significant (30+) province defense.