Am I actually lucky?

[Marfolog]

So I pulled like 5 legendaries within the first 50 pulls I did (excluding the first 10 with a guaranteed legendary). I was genuienly curuous whether I'm lucky or the chances are much higher than I'm expecting

[Halko]

That is not how reality or math works. It might SEEM like luck is being adjusted down the longer you roll but thats just nonsense. There is an "enforced" pity to not drop you below 2% but that only removes the unlucky scenarios and guarantees you to be over the base rate in the account. The simple fact though is that the more you roll the more you will creep down to that base 2% because that is how averages and sample sizes effect outcomes. If you flip a coin ten times you might get a 70/30 split but if you flip it a million times you are going to hit an almost perfect 50/50 with a slight margin of error. It isnt "designed" that way that is just how probability works. There isnt a system in stone to "push back" good luck because math naturally does that over a long enough time. All the game has is a way to push luck UP so the experience of rolling isnt an overly negative one.

[Hentaika]

Originally posted by Halko:

That is not how reality or math works. It might SEEM like luck is being adjusted down the longer you roll but thats just nonsense. There is an "enforced" pity to not drop you below 2% but that only removes the unlucky scenarios and guarantees you to be over the base rate in the account. The simple fact though is that the more you roll the more you will creep down to that base 2% because that is how averages and sample sizes effect outcomes. If you flip a coin ten times you might get a 70/30 split but if you flip it a million times you are going to hit an almost perfect 50/50 with a slight margin of error. It isnt "designed" that way that is just how probability works. There isnt a system in stone to "push back" good luck because math naturally does that over a long enough time. All the game has is a way to push luck UP so the experience of rolling isnt an overly negative one.

What you mention is not how math works if we take multiple instances.

Out of hundreds/thousands of people - there will inevitably be one who is waaay luckier than average over long spree. That's just average statistics.
There is none of that here however. You will always approach 2% no matter what - be it lower or higher. Game only allows a very temporary lucky spree before INEVITABLY throwing you down.
Only noticeable by whales who spend to pull every character and who often notice how a huge luck is always followed by a huge bad luck.

Devs can obviously even state there is nothing like that, but without actual investigation/sue case nobody would know.

[anotherGamer]

at the end of the day it only matters if you can get who you want

i mean i did get gloria and beryl but it took me everything
and i shouldn't have pulled for simona (but she so damn gorgeous ^^)
so now starting the game more than a week later and basically always buying stamina for 60 i have as god as no pulls left
the upcoming coca banner also seems like a must have (like beryl and gloria)
i guess i have to do the math to see how many pulls i ned to hit the magical 2% since even the soft pity is out of reach...

[Halko]

Originally posted by Hentaika:

What you mention is not how math works if we take multiple instances.

Out of hundreds/thousands of people - there will inevitably be one who is waaay luckier than average over long spree. That's just average statistics.
There is none of that here however. You will always approach 2% no matter what - be it lower or higher. Game only allows a very temporary lucky spree before INEVITABLY throwing you down.
Only noticeable by whales who spend to pull every character and who often notice how a huge luck is always followed by a huge bad luck.

Devs can obviously even state there is nothing like that, but without actual investigation/sue case nobody would know.

No no no absolutely not except in cases with low sample sizes. One person might get lucky early and roll an absurd amount of positive results but over a long enough timeline it will even out. There is no bias toward or against luck because eventually lock ceases to matter because its all just margin of error. I will guarantee you that there is some lucky bastard that has like an 8% pull rate right now with something like 300 pulls. That is NORMAL as is when he reaches 3000 pulls that rate dropping to 2.5% because that is how sample size effects outcomes. Over a long spree everything evens out and by the time you hit 4 digit numbers everyone will be relatively equal and by the time you hit 5 digits everyone is effectively even.

It is not the game doing this. It is nature. It is math. it is how things work. There is not some kind of magic voodoo that gifts people good or bad luck except when a small sample size is factored in. Look up how sample sizes effect outcomes and basic information on statistics and probability.

[edit] You ALSO must take into account that many people rerolled accounts for that early god pull scenario which boosts the overall numbers early. Its real easy to force a high roll % when you roll 100 accounts for one with 4 SSR in the first 10 pull.

[Halko]

For a somewhat better example of what is going on check out this video and note that when the graphs show up they are -very- narrow bell curves even with a relatively small sample size. This is because when you roll probability multiple times the results end up canceling each other out and resulting in a fairly consistent outcome. You will get unlucky and have a bad streak but you will also be lucky and have a good streak. The odds of both happening are the same and will occur at essentially the same rates. To deviate from the norm is INCREDIBLY unlikely.

The actual info starts at ~4:45
https://youtu.be/8Ko3TdPy0TU

[TigerNightmare]

Anyone that talks about knowing how probability works doesn't know how probability works. It is not a logical science, it is chaos. 7 might be the most probable roll for two D6 dice, but most probable doesn't mean people don't get double sixes or snake eyes 2-3 times in a row. The fact is, each roll happens independently from one another, so rolling 12 first doesn't mean it's more or less likely to roll another 12. Treat each pull like a roll of the dice because that's what it is. And even if you're unusually, spectacularly unlucky, you have the pities to fallback on. And I'm likely to never know what that's like in this game. But it's still possible.

[Halko]

Yes exactly. Each instance is its own dice roll and totally unknowable from each roll to the next. The only thing that you can do is realize that eventually with enough rolls all of the variations between sets of rolls doesnt matter because they are all within the same bell curve of results. A million different people rolling a million times on a d100 will all end up with roughly the same results at the end within a slight variation. Any deviation outside of that tight bell curve is so unlikely to actually exist its essentially impossible. Luck can only influence yourself inside that bell curve and that bell curve is pretty tiny. Its VERY fuzzy and VERY chaotic but there are clear trends that a lot of people blatantly ignore because they want to believe some wild ♥♥♥♥ about how someone can be uberlucky or how someone is "tampering" with chance because of what they want to be true.

There WILL be variation between peoples results but you wont have anyone getting exceedingly lucky or unlucky over a long enough time line. It just REALLY bothers me when people are out there blatantly accusing people of tampering because they dont understand the basic concepts of the situation.

People really get hung up on the "its technically possible" argument as well like its some kind of magic phrase that washes away all arguments. Its technically possible for me to roll 100 times on a banner and get 100 rate up characters. But that will never happen in a million years and its not because the developers are secretly lying to us all.

[Syad]

Originally posted by anotherGamer:

70 pulls for gloria
100 for beryl and 100 Simona
my summon statistic says (290 summons 7 Legendays 2,41%)
wich doesn't feel good considering i pulled Rawiyah wich you get for free
and Guzman who is simply grap...

bricked account! 🧱💀😅

[yeeck]

Unbelievable... I tried 100 pulls to Simona... and I get Col again...
Really prefer to get any new character to tryout rather than same one. Sad!

[Arion]

Yes this game makes it really suck to get a duplicate, the compensation for that is very lackluster, just 50 shards. Should give us some extra draws when getting a legendary duplicate, 5 or even 10.

[anotherGamer]

it also resets your pity which makes it worse than getting nothing

[TigerNightmare]

People've been buzzing about Cocoa, so I'm gonna pull for her. Thanks to Simona, my pities are currently at 99 for any legendaries and 179 for debut banners. LET'S GO!

First 10: nothing
Second 10: nothing
Third 10: nothing
Fourth 10: nothing
Fifth 10: nothing
Sixth 10: nothing
Seventh 10: nothing
Eighth 10: nothing
Ninth 10: nothing
Tenth 10: Cocoa in the 9th/99th pull!
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3330381692
Hit the legendary pity for the first time, but at least I got her.

[anotherGamer]

Originally posted by anotherGamer:

70 pulls for gloria
100 for beryl and 100 Simona
my summon statistic says (290 summons 7 Legendries 2,41%)
wich doesn't feel good considering i pulled Rawiyah wich you get for free
and Guzman who is simply grap...

rolled for coca
and i really got a legendary as soon as i hit the 2%

unfortunately i lost the coinflip got myself a edda i know people like her butt i find her quite lackluster... well still better than a duplicate

on the bright side i get every 50 plus a legendary (350 summons 8 legendaries 2,29%)
not that i will be able to have only 500 luxyte left

by the way did they reduce the amount of Luxites you get from daylis ?
i could swear i used to get more that's why i was hitting the 60 for stamina every day

now is like 60 from daily and 5 from clash

[Xystus]

..if you were after the featured character and you got them then I'd say you are lucky. I just quit after realizing how this game's gacha system works. I may get 179 five star units on my 179 pulls but only guaranteed to get the featured character at 180th pull. This system makes even the stingy Mihorny looks better it's ridiculous lol

[xDesirée Heartx]

Yes, you are