Claw Machine Chance

[Pyroasauras_WMS]

Every source I've seen says the claw machine has a 1/4 chance to pay out but from my experience it feels like a 1/6 - 1/8 chance. Was there a change in repentance+ that lowered it , I just had a run where I played a single claw machine 15-20 times without a single payout. (Although I've also have had 2 runs in a row where a 85-95 percent devil chance didn't give me a deal so I might just be getting unlucky)

[steven]

Crane game is indeed 25% chance to pay out.
Here the chances to pay out : PO = 1 - (0.75^N), with N = number of tries

25% chance doesn't mean you can roll 3 times and at the 4th roll you have 100% chance to win the item.
You can obtain the item after 1 try or 20. Nothing strange, just maths and a bit of luck.

With N = 4, PO = 68%
With N = 10, PO = 94%
With N = 16, PO = 99%

---> You are still not sure to win the prize, even with a big N.
If it doesn't say 100%, you can fail. Unlikely, but possible.

For Devil deal, it's unlucky as well. You can open DD with 1% or fail with 99%.

[HeraldOfOpera]

RNGesus giveth and RNGesus taketh away.

[Pyroasauras_WMS]

Originally posted by steven:

Crane game is indeed 25% chance to pay out.
Here the chances to pay out : PO = 1 - (0.75^N), with N = number of tries

25% chance doesn't mean you can roll 3 times and at the 4th roll you have 100% chance to win the item.
You can obtain the item after 1 try or 20. Nothing strange, just maths and a bit of luck.

With N = 4, PO = 68%
With N = 10, PO = 94%
With N = 16, PO = 99%

---> You are still not sure to win the prize, even with a big N.
If it doesn't say 100%, you can fail. Unlikely, but possible.

For Devil deal, it's unlucky as well. You can open DD with 1% or fail with 99%.

If Im being honest I fully understood that while I was posting this I was just looking to ♥♥♥♥♥ about my weirdly bad crane game luck. I do appreciate the well thought out and informative response though. (I'm also not complaining about my luck as a whole, even with those problems I was still able to win those runs without too much hassle)

[Pyroasauras_WMS]

Originally posted by HeraldOfOpera:

RNGesus giveth and RNGesus taketh away.

Amen