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I'm aware they are mostly random, but there's a few pickups that influence what type of items you get. To a player that doesn't memorize both the few pickups that do this and/or what recipes give what, it can seem like there's not even a smudge of rhyme or reason to anything. I mean, come on, how do you figure out that runes gives an extra chance for a planetarium if there's no pennies, bombs, keys, or red hearts? Who guesses that bombs and keys have no influence on bomb-type items and key-type items appearing? Who guesses that certain types of hearts gives a bigger chance for devil/angel/secret room items when so many items just don't influence things in ways that make sense?
The main point I'm trying to get across is that it's not very intuitive. Figuring out how to craft the right items can feel impossible when you don't know how it works, and I myself got completely stumped on how to use the Bag of Crafting for anything other than guide-assisted gamebreaks. I don't think it's too hard to add more item pools (or just tags for items) for the sole purpose of having crafting be more intuitive. If I was unclear in the main post I may edit it to get the point across quicker.
In addition, I've heard they planned (or at least considered) making every run's seed affect the crafting recipes. This completely destroys guides, and I seriously question how fun T. Cain would be when you can't even use previous runs info as a crutch, nevermind using crafting guides as a bigger one.
Additionally, remember when I mentioned that crafting guides and mods don't play nicely together? That's why they planned adding your seed to the formula. The fact that mods are enabled again is a strike against it ever happening, but they also proposed a compromise of having at least one hardcoded recipe for each item to sort of have your cake and eat it too.
Totally forgot about the key master and bomb bum pools. Yeah, that would work well enough.