missing at 95% A LOT!

[mattsnooz]

Whats with this. I miss some times 3 in a row, from point blank range, even on an immobile target caught in a bear trap. Thats a bit impossible. Especially being that I am waiting for the target and ambushing it so it has no chance to dodge, move, or anything. I think in certain circumstances it should be 100%. Especially for someone who has been shooting for 6 levels worth (long time lol)

If I'm gonna miss 3 times in a row at 95% chance, then its not a 95% chance. Statistically speaking, missing 3 times with that chance to hit is almost improbable.

Also, I know we have to pay attention to movement points/ap but can we implement something during combat that prevents the PC from attempting to do things but won't have enough APs to complete the entire task. For instance, I want to slam a door in an enemies face but door is 2 squares away. I click on door, character walks over but does not have enough aps to actually close the door. So I've wasted movement points. I wish a warning came up and said, "not enough action points to complete task, continue anyway?" And if for some thats annoying, you can disable the warnings.

Something else that I wondered, when you try to shoot a gun when the clip is empty. That should consume the aps even though you weren't able to shoot. If you forget to reload your gun and you try to shoot some one... the hammer ♥♥♥♥♥ and actions but nothing happens. You still pulled the trigger so should still consume action points. Maybe not asmuch but you still took the effort to pull the trigger.

[Czar~<{(o)}>~Loki]

I use the sprint perk that lets me move a bit farther and that alone sometimes can make up the difference you need to get to the door and still have enough ap to close it. Seomtimes not but I have found that it is a very good perk to get on all most all classes. I also use the perk that resets my movement points when I kill an enemy.

[mattsnooz]

good ideas

[IronBudmeister]

First off, does your character have excessively low luck or something of that sort? (yes I know luck isn't in the stats system, I'm just poking fun before the ranty wall of text) Don't be mad that the random number generator screwed you over. Statistically missing 3 times in a row with a 95% is not impossible, it's simply improbably. 95% statistically speaking means that if you were to do that task 100 times, you will complete that task 95 times. That means you will have 5 chances during those 100 attempts to fail.

That's going under the assumption that the RNG is using that specific combat instance as those 100 tries to hit. If the chances for each shot is it's own specific instance rather than a grouped instance, then that means each subsequent shot still has a 95/100 chance to succeed. Instead of 95/100, 95/99, 95/98, 95/97 etc. each shot is 95/100, 95/100, 95/100, blah blah you get the picture.

TL;DR if you miss it's because the RNG said so, regardless of how close to 100% you are. Missing 3 times in a row is improbable but not impossible.

Also, last time I checked it should tell you how much ap is required to do an action if you had your cursor on the door to complete that action. I could be wrong, but that should be how it is already, telling you how much you need and whatnot.

[rjensen1]

For any 3 sets of shots, the chance that they will all be misses is .01% (Assuming that each one is unaffected by the others)

You get to 100 sets of three (which is really just 102 consecutive shots), and now you're at a 1% chance of having that happen.

Does that sound rare? Maybe. But how many times do you shoot? How many people are there playing this game? All it takes is for a few people to have it happen enough and to go online and post about it. It's just math. And probability.

You know what would be more amazing than unlikely coincidences happening? If they never happened at all.

[mattsnooz]

Originally posted by IronBudmeister:

First off, does your character have excessively low luck or something of that sort? (yes I know luck isn't in the stats system, I'm just poking fun before the ranty wall of text) Don't be mad that the random number generator screwed you over. Statistically missing 3 times in a row with a 95% is not impossible, it's simply improbably. 95% statistically speaking means that if you were to do that task 100 times, you will complete that task 95 times. That means you will have 5 chances during those 100 attempts to fail.

That's going under the assumption that the RNG is using that specific combat instance as those 100 tries to hit. If the chances for each shot is it's own specific instance rather than a grouped instance, then that means each subsequent shot still has a 95/100 chance to succeed. Instead of 95/100, 95/99, 95/98, 95/97 etc. each shot is 95/100, 95/100, 95/100, blah blah you get the picture.

TL;DR if you miss it's because the RNG said so, regardless of how close to 100% you are. Missing 3 times in a row is improbable but not impossible.

Also, last time I checked it should tell you how much ap is required to do an action if you had your cursor on the door to complete that action. I could be wrong, but that should be how it is already, telling you how much you need and whatnot.

I dunno...common sense dictates, even reality dictates (as I have fired many firearms and have become proficient like my character is by now), when I have learned to shoot consistantly, missing at point blank range on an immobile target IS impossible! I have never done it! Once you get point blank, its very hard to miss an immobile target! Hard is the wrong word...Impossible!! The gun would have a messed up barrel. I'd say if the gun is at its lowest condition, maybe this would be probable to miss at point blank but otherwise, no way. Especially if your scrounging for weapons/ammo and that robot is gonna ♥♥♥♥♥ kill you if you miss too many times.

I think "Aimed" shot should increase chances to hit also and you could spend more APs to aim longer to add more chance to hit (up to a certain point). I think jagged alliance did something like that. And it makes sense. If I spend more time aiming, I typically have a better chance to hit. BUT, that being said, if you wait too long, your muscles get fatigued (with a long rifle) and your chance would go down actually as your barrel will be less steady.


I'm usually in a rush so don't read down in the lower right that I am low on aps to finish the action I want. I probably am into much of a rush to see it at the end of the cursor. I will just have to slow down really...

[BOM]

Statistically, in this circumstance, the ocurrence of an event with a P of .05^3 is not at all improbable.

(WARNING: Gratuitous math below!)

If you make 3 consecutive rolls of 1d20, then the P for rolling 3 20s in a row is 1.25 * 10^-4. Which is to say, highly improbable. We'll call that P (3 20s | 3 d20), or P3 for short.

If you make 4 consecutive rolls of 1d20, then the P for rolling at least 3 20s in a row is 2.5 * 10^-4. Which is to say, twice as likely. That would be P (3 20s | 4 d20), or P4

P5 is 3.75 * 10-4, which is twice as much as P3 or 50% more than P4.

Pn is (n-2) * 20^(n-3) / (20^n).

So, if we make some assumptions and set some boundaries...

If an average player makes between 25 and 100 shots with 95% to-hit during the course of his playing the game, then roughly one out of every 80 to 350 players will miss 3 95% shots in a row.

I have no idea how many people have played the game, but I'm guessing it's at least a few hundred, or possibly as many as several thousand.

But, you get the point.

Things that are so improbable as to seem virtually impossible happen all the time, to someone. It's a corollary of the Law of Large Numbers.

(/gratuitous math)

Maybe the to-hit chance should cap higher than 95%, at least in the most favourable of circumstances. Maybe as high as 99.95% or somesuch, for something like an immobilized, defenseless, large-size opponent at point-blank range.

[wilowood]

ouch !!!!!!

[mattsnooz]

my brain hurted-ed too after I read that... :P

[Stryker]

Really, I think point blank on an immobile character should be 100% too.

[howwood]

Is your gun in good repair?

[Birne]

I don't try to hit guys with a to hit chance of below 50% but my statistic is more like 20% of shots hit the target and when I look at my bolt consumption I may have shot roughly 200 bolts already.

3 consecutive misses in a row with a to hit cahnce of 90%+ have happened to me only once but two times in a row thrice. I also notice that if you attack stealthed without activating combat first you NEVER hit. I tried it with save/reload and i missed EVERY SINGLE TIME no matter what the to hit chance is.

Also implementing randomness in a computer game (or any kind of software) is impossible without having a setup that measures radioactive decay. The algorithm that that is used to create random numbers in this game is just a bit crappy.

I had the exact same problem with the Fallout games but the problem mysteriously went away after i skilled luck for a change. No joke. Don't play with 1 luck. Never. Don't you dare! :)