Fishing numbers for the stat nerds

[Zerrubabel]

Hello all, I'm posting this here partially because I can't make a guide (get an error message on creation) and partially because it isn't exactly a guide so much as a PSA. I couldn't find hard and fast facts on fishing percentages and whether chances of catching legendary items were affected by zircons and similar item effects (chances to find magical items). Before getting started with the methods I will leave the results at the top of this post for those who just want the numbers and don't want to scroll through my crazy ravings. Here we go!

*Note* Whiffs = catching nothing not due to human error (i.e. setting hook too early or late)
Catch = Something was caught, other than Legendary items

When you cast a line, assuming you aren't using exploits or workarounds (like pausing the game to never miss a cast) you have the following chances for the outcomes:

Whiff: 32.15%
Catch: 60.85%
Legendary: 7%

When you see that you caught a fish, but before you know what you caught, you have the following probabilities rounded to the nearest hundreth of a percent:

Catch: 90%
Legendary: 10%

Ok, now for the actual numbers and how the experiment was conducted. These results were gathered through fishing on a spread of levels, between Grove and level 43. 2000 fish were caught in batches of 100 each (some levels were repeated others had only 100 samples). Statistically speaking, if you have an undetermined or infite population, which is the case for Fate's fishing, you fall into a 10% certainty in sample sizes of 100, and a 3% certainty in samples of 1000. I feel l have confidently determined the Fate fishing algorithm as you will soon see a very familar pattern in all samples I will provide. The breakdown of the 20 fishing sessions for 2000 fish is as follows:

Level: Catch: Whiff: Legendary:

Grove / 57% / 36% / 7%

Grove / 61% / 34% / 5%

Grove / 67% / 28% / 5%

2 / 66% / 26% / 8%

3 / 62% / 35% / 3%

5 / 66% / 27% / 7%

7 / 60% / 35% / 5%

9 / 53% / 38% / 9%

9 / 61% / 27% / 12%

10 / 58% / 35% / 7%

18 / 52% / 41% / 7%

20 / 60% / 29% / 11%

22 / 62% / 32% / 6%

25 / 59% / 30% / 11%

28 / 66% / 29% / 5%

32 / 58% / 32% / 10%

34 / 59% / 35% / 6%

36 / 68% / 27% / 5%

39 / 64% / 30% / 6%

43 / 58% / 37% / 5%


A few things to note here. All of these catches were done on the original Fate game, on Adventerer difficulty. The chances of finding magical items was varied, between 0% chance all the way to 330% chance. What was clearly noted was that the whiffs were all extremely close to 33.3% chance or 1/3 across all samples (a couple outliers but very consistent). The catch rate was all slightly less than 2/3rds, or low 60%. Legendaries stayed at just under 7% (my last batch brought it to exactly 7%). This immediately screamed to me that the catch rate plus legendary rate equaled very close to 2/3 which made me think that once a catch was made, a new algorithm to determine legendaries was executed (much with how we understand enchanting to work, by checking sockets first and moving on from there). Sure enough, the numbers were exactly (rounded to the nearest hundredth of a percent) 90% and 10%. So what can we take away from this?

- Chance to find magical items has no effect on fishing
- you have a 1 in 3 chance to miss a cast (assuming no trickes or exploits)
- you have a 1 in 10 chance to get a legendary if you do catch something
- The depth you fish at has no impact on your chance to catch a legendary, only the quality of the legendary.

I really hope you guys found this PSA helpful, based on actual accumilation of data. Have a nice day!

[HiFive]

I wonder if the error you are getting when you try to create a guide is similar to the error we get when we try to create a long review of a game. The solution for the reviews is to make a very short one and then edit it with a copy/paste of the longer version.

Thanks for the information!