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Guess what happens if i insist setting myself on fire is the best way to get to 100
*Actually try and prove it*
Just because I have a PLAN to live that long doesn't mean I can be a giant idiot and do things that ruin that plan... you know like being an insane racist on twitter to the leader of DOGE about how very much i don't like whites or something non-specific like that.
Again passive-aggressive sarcasm - and again: It couldn't change the facts.
Them being:
Avowed is bleeding money momentarily.
It's neither as "successful" as former Obsidian games, nor can you expect, that it will break even with the production cost in the foreseeable future. If ever - winter sales won't help much by dropping the price.
Maybe next time?
Those numbers are misleading - it's the production cost that matters (and they include the salary for the employees). The production cost for OW was a fraction of the production cost for Avowed. Let's not forget: 6 years in development. This leads to huge expenses.
On top of that the changes in employees working on the project. Etc.
Fact is: Avowed did cost way more.
Fact is: Obsidian needs way more buyers than for OW.
Fact is: Won't happen in the foreseeable future.
Success is something different.
Sales alone, plus their team seems to indicate it's doing similar or better than OWm
This isn't some kind of Bachelor-show in which the most important thing would be how likeable someone/-thing is (and judging by the amount of sales this candidate won't get a rose this time) - it's the amount of revenue a product is generating, which leads to the corporate decision: "Successful or not? Your studio depends on it."
You like this game, I get this. No worries, you were pretty clear about it.
It just doesn't change the hard facts about the financial reality of this game.
Don't misplace the one for the other - someone would set up himself for failure this way.
These are the facts:
1. Microsoft’s Stated Satisfaction: Forbes reports Microsoft is "happy with Avowed sales so far." Corporate satisfaction implies the game is meeting internal financial targets, not arbitrary "Day 1 break-even" metrics. Microsoft has access to real-time data, including Game Pass engagement, pre-orders, and projected long-term revenue—factors outsiders lack.
2. Budget Comparisons:
The Outer Worlds (2019): Developed with a AA budget (estimated $60M), sold ~5M copies. A success for its scale.
Avowed (2025): A AAA title with a higher budget (industry-standard AAA RPGs range $80-150M but even that is just speculation.). Microsoft funds these projects for long-term ecosystem growth, not just unit sales.
3. Success ≠ Immediate Profit:
Most AAA games take 12-24 months to break even. Example: Cyberpunk 2077 recouped its $174M budget after 2 years (25M+ sold post-updates/discounts).
Avowed’s "bleeding money" claim lacks evidence. Microsoft’s satisfaction suggests it’s on track for projected ROI.
4. Game Pass Impact:
Microsoft prioritizes subscriber growth over pure unit sales. Example: Starfield (12M+ players via Game Pass) boosted subscriptions, adding recurring revenue. Avowed’s value includes retaining/attracting Game Pass users—a metric not reflected in "buyer counts."
5. Long-Term Sales Strategies:
Winter sales, discounts, and DLC routinely extend a game’s profitability. The Witcher 3 sold 50M+ copies over 8 years, heavily aided by discounts/updates.
Obsidian’s games (e.g., Pentiment, Grounded) often see sales spikes years after launch due to word-of-mouth and updates.
6. Obsidian’s Track Record:
Pillars of Eternity (2015): Niche CRPG, sold ~1M copies. Deemed successful for its genre/budget.
Avowed is a AAA pivot with Microsoft’s backing. Comparing it to smaller-scale titles ignores scoped ambition and publisher support.
Calling Avowed a failure before its first fiscal year is premature. Microsoft’s public stance, industry-standard ROI timelines, and Game Pass economics contradict the claim. Success for AAA games is measured in years, not weeks—especially under a subscription-driven model.
*Sees link is to Eurogamer*
Me: Ah. So a big load of dung is being pushed. No thanks.
That's like the five stages of grief - you're in the denial phase still.
And that's fine.
If you would now look at what you used as argumentation (with a neutral stance) you would see, how much denial is in it.
1. What Microsoft states in the hot buyers-phase isn't important. That's called marketing. Wait for the financial report next Q.
2. You forgot to mention how many copies Avowed sold up until now. And how many it would need to break even.
3. Cyberpunk is a bad examples due to less sales in the beginning stages. Due to being a buggy mess at launch. As soon as those problems were fixed it skyrocketed (like it would have done at start if it wouldn't have been a buggy mess to begin with).
The most sales per day you get at the initial stage.
Looking at Avowed now...you see the problem, right?
4. GP impact is non-existent. 1$ trial phase after which it's cancelled. Or an already established GP contract (12$ per month or something along the line) which doesn't bring further revenue for Microsoft since the people don't spend further money on top of what they're already spending.
It's a stillbirth financially.
5. Long term - only viable through sales. Which cuts the profit and thus would need even more people to buy this game.
A game which is forgettable.
A game people already played for free/1$ - don't need to play it in the future when more and more games are released in the meantime.
Avowed is no GTA.
6. Again forgetting: PoE had a fraction of the production cost - 1 million sold copies led to a huge revenue.
1 million sold copies of Avowed wouldn't even break even the production costs.
If you don't want to see the difference - okay, your choice.
Others are seeing it, though.
(And I bet you, as well - reason being: Lashing out due to being in the denial phase.)
You have a revenue of 100$
2. You spend 1k$ and get 200$ in return - you've lost 800$.
Is 2 as successful as 1?
It earns 100$ - in that regard - yes, it's as successful.
Losing 800$ in the process, though... nope, it isn't as successful.