A note about Bloodlust

[mpnorman10]

There was concern expressed a while back about the Bloodlust sword missing to much when first obtained due to the expert difficulty and berserk penalties.

I am doing an MDP run in Arnika, have just picked up the sword and am closely monitoring its performance.

Roughly, just by observation, about 25% to 33% of the swings are hitting and doing damage. Because there are two swings that is roughly 50-67% chance that at least one swing per round of combat hits, and for considerable damage. Note that these observations (anecdotal evidence - small sample size) included a Level 9 slime and a Level 9 Rebel Spirit.

Edit: The numbers 50%-67% were incorrectly calculated and this was fixed in posts that follow. It is actually more like 44%-56%, given the assumption of 1 out of 4 to 1 out of 3 swings resulting in a penetrating hit that does damage and 2 swings (due to the bonus swing that Bloodlust gives).

The key to this excellent performance (for this early in the game) is the allocation of Attribute and Skill points at creation and level-up. Those allocations are as per the MDP guide and here is the example Bard with Bloodlust I have been observing.

Level 8 Male Mook Bard:

Attributes: Strength-> 85, Intelligence-> 50, Piety-> 25, Vitality-> 50, Dexterity-> 90, Speed-> 45, Senses-> 65

Skills: Close Combat-> 30, Ranged Combat-> 2, Dual Weapons-> 0, Artifacts-> 29, Mythology-> 14, Communication-> 18, Sword-> 38, Dagger-> 0, Staff & Wand-> 0, Shield-> 7, Bow-> 3, Throwing & Sling-> 0, Locks & Traps-> 29, Music-> 23, Pickpocket-> 0

AR is 30, To Hit is +9 and To Damage is 70%

My tentative conclusion (just IMO) is that if the player intends to have one of their characters use Bloodlust and that is prepared by pushing the appropriate (again, IMO) attributes and fighting skills at creation and level-up, then there is no reason to delay the equipping of Bloodlust with its inherent Berserk capability (and penalty) even when playing expert difficulty.

Note in the above there are several skills that received zero skill points at level-up but are coming along nicely, IMO, including Artifacts, Mythology and Shield Skills.

Also Music at 23 (+5 boost at creation but 0 points at any level-up) is coming along very nicely, IMO. Piercing Pipes is powerful in battle, but not overly so.

[Skleedle]

2 swings at 25% doesn't equal 50%, that averaging isn't additive

[vysionier]

Originally posted by Skleedle:

2 swings at 25% doesn't equal 50%, that averaging isn't additive

In this specific case, with 25% per swing and the goal of 1 hit out of two dice, there would be a 37.5% chance of a hit. There would also be a 6.25% chance of two consecutive hits, and a 56.25% chance of two consecutive misses.

[mpnorman10]

I said roughly 50% guys, and it is 43.75%, but I will confess to my statement being inaccurate, the math in my head was sloppy. Thank you for the correction.

By the way saying that the 33% chance for two swings added up to 67% is even worse, because that is also around 50% ((1 - 4/9) x 100%), like 56%, for at least one hit.

Of course both percentages from that observation are rough and with a small sample size.

[vysionier]

If there were 33% chance of hitting, hitting once in two swings would be 44.22% hitting twice in a row would be 10.89% and missing twice in a row would be 44.89%

[mpnorman10]

Originally posted by vysionier:

If there were 33% chance of hitting, hitting once in two swings would be 44.22% hitting twice in a row would be 10.89% and missing twice in a row would be 44.89%

And hitting at least once out of two swings...?

Look guys, my initial math was sloppy and the percentages were wrong. My bad.

[vysionier]

Hey look, this isn’t a criticism, I just like doing the math. Do with it what you will. But try and read more carefully, you’ll notice the first % I gave you was the chance of hitting once in two swings.

[mpnorman10]

Originally posted by vysionier:

Hey look, this isn’t a criticism, I just like doing the math. Do with it what you will. But try and read more carefully, you’ll notice the first % I gave you was the chance of hitting once in two swings.

So you were not disputing that the chance of at least one hit out of two (if the percentage for one is 33%) is about 56%. All of my numbers were approximate, including saying 33% for 1 out of 3, but the range of 50-67% given 1 out of 4 and 1 out of 3 as the two limits of the range should have been (roughly) 44% to 56% (for at least one hit out of two swings).

Any inaccuracies and wrong data were entirely on me.

If the observations are not out of line (you guys tell me what you experience if the same or different) then I am thinking not bad for that sword and character that early in the game, in spite of the expert difficulty and berserk penalties. Make sense?

[vysionier]

37.5% to 44.2% not sure where you got 56%

[mpnorman10]

Ah, but now I have high confidence in the math.

For the one out of three, the chance of hitting at least once is 100% x ( 1 - (2/3 x 2/3)) = 100% x ( 1 - 4/9) = 100% x 5/9 = 100% x 0.55555... = 55.555...% ~ 56%.

I think in your calculations you forgot the possibility that both swings were a hit. Hitting at least once includes that possibility.

[vysionier]

There are three given outcomes when rolling for hitting. Two misses, one hit, and two hits. All together those add up to 100% so A%+B%+C%=100%

the probability to hit of 33% for two rolls means .33 *.33 = .1089 aka 10.89% for two hits. So A%= 10.89%

For two misses in a row is .67 *.67= .4489 aka 44.89%. So B%= 44.89%

Now solve for C%. A%-A%+B%-B%+C%= 100%-A%-B%.
Simplified version: C%=100%-A%-B%

Plug in the numbers: C%= 100%-10.89%-44.89%
C%=44.22%

That’s how you can solve for the chances to hit with one out of two with a 33% chance to hit.

[mpnorman10]

Originally posted by vysionier:

For two misses in a row is .67 *.67= .4489 aka 44.89%. So B%= 44.89%

Sorry, Vysionier but your math is wrong. I quoted you calculation for B% because the chance of at least one hit, when the chance for a single swing hitting is 1 out of 3 is 100% minus the B%. There is no additional 10.89% to subtract.

Please think about it for a moment. If there are not two misses, what you have there is at least one hit. I think what you were computing was the chance of exactly one hit, but believe me, the player will not mind if both swings connect for damage. I was careful, after my original sloppy calculation, to be very precise and always make it clear that the numbers represent the probability of "at least" one hit from the two swings.

Also, when you come up with 44.89% when using 0.67 for the probability that a single swing does not hit, that is a rounding thing. If actually using 2/3, then the probability for two misses is 44.4444...%, i.e. an infinite series.

Hopefully stating this in words will help. Either the sword misses both times or it does not (at least one hit), there are no other possibilities. 100% - 44.4444...% is 55.5555...% or, rounded off 56%.

Your component numbers are very close to correct, and there is no worry about the rounding of those (i.e. 44.89% is close enough to 44.4444...%), it is just that you are subtracting an additional term that should not be subtracted. Two hits is a valid part of at least one hit and it should not be subtracted.

I want to share a follow up observation from today's gaming, but I believe we should clear up this minor mathematical point, first.

[vysionier]

You did say ‘at least one hit’ in your initial statement, so in that case you would be correct, sorry about that! Got too focused on one aspect, my bad! The % for _at least_ one hit would be 55.11%. Assuming a 33% chance to hit of course.

[mpnorman10]

No worries, so for that early in the game the double swing makes up for a lot of the inaccuracy of the Bloodlust sword at that point, getting at least one hit per round of combat roughly half of the time (that is a lot, IMO, at that point).

That included, from my rough observations, a level 9 slime and level 9 Rebel Spirit. Then along comes 7, Level 10, Higardi Bandits with about 150 Hit Points each and do they ever hit hard. I do not believe that the Bard with Bloodlust even performed at one out of four, but they have always been tough.

Magic Damage was used to defeat them, including two rounds of just taking damage and mostly missing with range and melee weapons before letting the AOE Magic Damage spells loose (to ensure that all 7 would be hit by every spell... no spell points to waste). They were coming out of the underground part of the temple with the party waiting for them in Antone's doorway to limit their access to the party, but battle locked when only two were out and three ran backwards, away from the fight as they "advanced" (because others of the 7 were blocking their way out) but then the next round, with others having left that hallway and reached the party already they ran towards the battle and the round after that they were finally in range. The party was just taking damage and healing (no magic damage and weapons mostly missing) while all of this was going on. When AOE magic damage spells began all seven were hit by each spell.

Soul and Element Shield, just obtained, were both successfully put up in the yellow at Power Level 2 initially, but they were not replenished when they ran out (spell points used up with AOE, magic damage spells), making the party more vulnerable.

Even though the party did nothing to scatter them (no fear or blind), one of them unfortunately did decide to run after the first round of magic damage. Also, I do not want to give the false impression it was easy. All four characters on the front line drank at least one Heavy Heal Potion (each had two in their inventory) in addition to other healing and curing of poison (via potions in their inventory). The other 6 Higardi Bandits did not run and eventually were reduced to nothing by chipping away at them with magic damage (the Mage, only, drank one Magic Elixer), but they went down fighting... hard. Attempts to use the Bard with Bloodlust (in only 2 or 3 rounds in favor of using the Piercing Pipes magic damage in the other rounds) did not hit at all, due, I presume, to being 2 levels higher than the party and being generally hard to hit.

The bottom line about being partially effective even when first obtained needs a caveat of "Against most enemies." I have always, with any party, not found Level 10 Higardi Bandits to be easy. IIRC, generally there are usually no more than 4 or 5 of them in a group, often with other, lesser groups of Higardi, but this time there were 7. If this was not an MDP that would have mattered a lot. Typically there are four or five in a group and when one of them sometimes runs away from battle, any melee/range party fighting them and focused on killing them one at a time, sends up a cheer. For the MDP the fact there were 7 rather than 5 was merely a curiosity, but fighting them was not easy.

In spite of that tough battle, I believe equipping Bloodlust right away when obtained is viable if prepared with attribute and skill allocations at creation and level-up prior to that. I am trying though this example, to help give a feel for the limits of that.

[vysionier]

I think there would be much benefit to counting the exact accuracy vs. a single opponent with full stamina. We could extrapolate many inferences from that, such as training benefits and understanding more how the berserk malus affects accuracy.

Edit: also the idea of assessing the benefits/negatives of bloodlust are very interesting to me, and I have my own MDP with a similar setup to yours I will test with. First, however, I will need a day before I can play again, as I have a session of starfinder tonight, and I can’t play games during the day :/

[Zergs]

Do y'all think Fang, Muramasa, The Mauler, and Ivory Blade are on par with Bloodlust, better, or worse? I know not all classes can use all 5 of those weapons.

I don't remember if I pasted this spreadsheet before, but according to my calculations, these 5 weapons perform very similarly:

https://ibb.co/B3C5Brx

My spreadsheet doesn't take into account +/- to hit, +initiative, or specials such as Bloodlust's extra swing on the weapons.