Close genestealer: overwatch or guard?

[LeeSalt]

Which is more beneficial if a genestealer will be in your face on the next move: overwatch or guard?

[Jace]

The probabilities of killing it depend on available CP and distance.

http://twilight40k.blogspot.co.uk/2009/09/math-hulk-i-storm-bolter-vs-stealer.html

[LeeSalt]

Cool, thanks for the link!

[Dorok]

I don't see this comparison moreover it's like if rules aren't the same. Overwatch and Guard is hugely different and would require a specific comparison not a GS vs T comparison.

EDIT: I'd say the game doesn't provide enough stat information but the problem is it's more complicated that just provide a stat when you aim so the problem is complicated.

[jackx]

Depends on how many shots you get at the GS before it gets close, how many AP it'll have for CQ once it does.

There can be instances where you get only 1 shot at the GS prior to CQB, but they also only have 1 AP for CQB left, in that case, using Guard would make your Terminator ab it more likely to survive.
With the auto-unjams in this videogame, you may also want to use guard on a non-critical Terminator to prevent CP drain from jams.
Ammo/Explosion management with the AC may also be a reason to run the risk of guard.

Those are exceptions however, generally, you'll be using overwatch.

[Dorok]

Guard necessary kill or die? Because if you can just block you could be in a situation to block a large pack of GS. That said for now I almost never used guard to control something.

[LeeSalt]

So, do you get to fire on the GS for each square that it moves in your line of sight? If so, that would help me to understand which to choose.

[Thing What Kicks]

Originally posted by porkfat:

So, do you get to fire on the GS for each square that it moves in your line of sight? If so, that would help me to understand which to choose.

Yes, each time a GS moves in LOS of Overwatch, the Terminator shoots once.

If there's only going to be 1 OW shot, then you get a teeny-tiny advantage by using Guard instead of OW. The GS has about a 46% chance of getting a kill either way (i.e., the OW shot misses and the GS wins in CC), with a slightly better chance (maybe 47% or 48%) if you use OW instead of Guard. Basically irrelevant if there are several GS ready to attack.

If there's going to be more than 1 OW shot, then always always always use OW. For example, 2 shots of OW means the GS only has a ~21% chance of getting the kill.

And if you're only going to get 1 OW shot...battle-brother, you are doing it wrong.

In summary, Guard is useless. Never use it for non-melee Terminators. (No, Lorenzo is NOT a melee Terminator.)

[LeeSalt]

Thanks. Yeah, I realized today that Gideon is damn near invincible in guard. Case in point: http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=178980478

Holding back and knocking them out one at a time so the others may reach the exit.

Is there anyway to see your stats? I know for the achievements it shows you, but is there another way to see enemy kills or how many terminators survived in each level and what your running win/lose/survival rate stats are for each mission?

[Thing What Kicks]

Originally posted by porkfat:

Thanks. Yeah, I realized today that Gideon is damn near invincible in guard. Case in point: http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=178980478

Holding back and knocking them out one at a time so the others may reach the exit.

Heh, on average Gideon should get about 10 kills using Guard before he goes down. Slightly better than Claudio. Yet for me Claudio always goes down to the first attack, Guard or no. I kid you not.

Is there anyway to see your stats? I know for the achievements it shows you, but is there another way to see enemy kills or how many terminators survived in each level and what your running win/lose/survival rate stats are for each mission?

I do not think this is tracked currently.

[zorglub1422]

My Stats for Gideon using Guard on 20 Games :
Kills before death :
15
4
21
3
3
0
3
5
1
3
9
10
3
10
5
5
33
15
7
13
Average = 8.4 with min 0 and max 33.

[Gideon]

I was curious about this so computed the averages (can be done analytically, actually!). The average number of close assaults required to kill a terminator on guard is as follows:
Gideon: 9.09
Lorenzo: 5.51
Claudio: 5.99
All others: 2.12

Note that Lorenzo and Claudio are almost indistinguishable in their ability to defend while on guard. All others are factors of 3-4 worse than Lorenzo, Claudio, and Gideon.

Edit -- 2 disclaimers:
1. Per board game rules, all close assault special abilities apply when defending from the front. I don't know if they fixed it in the video game, but the above numbers assume all special abilities, i.e. defending from the front only. During flank or back attacks, all terminators are equivalent and perform very poorly.
2. There are decisions about whether or not to reroll guard, and (for Lorenzo) whether or not to reroll on parry. I have assumed decisions that maximize the probability of long-term survival. The video game makes these decisions for you automatically and I don't know if their decision tree is optimal, so you may see worse numbers than above...

Another edit: here is a table listing the probabilities that Gideon on guard will survive at least N close assaults:
1: 89%
2: 79%
3: 71%
4: 63%
5: 56%
6: 50%
7: 44%
8: 39%
9: 35%
10: 31%
...
20: 10%
30: 3%
40: 1%

[Gideon]

Originally posted by Thing What Kicks:

In summary, Guard is useless. Never use it for non-melee Terminators. (No, Lorenzo is NOT a melee Terminator.)

If I read you correctly, you are stating that Lorenzo is poor on guard. If that's the case, then so is Claudio (according to the numbers in my previous post). Are you saying Claudio is also not a melee Terminator? Also, note that my numbers for Claudio and Lorenzo are closer to Gideon than to a generic terminator (on a log scale).

[Thing What Kicks]

Originally posted by Gideon:

Originally posted by Thing What Kicks:

In summary, Guard is useless. Never use it for non-melee Terminators. (No, Lorenzo is NOT a melee Terminator.)

If I read you correctly, you are stating that Lorenzo is poor on guard. If that's the case, then so is Claudio (according to the numbers in my previous post). Are you saying Claudio is also not a melee Terminator? Also, note that my numbers for Claudio and Lorenzo are closer to Gideon than to a generic terminator (on a log scale).

Hmm, no I agree with your numbers. I had not actually did the Guard calculation for Claudio. Or any of them, really.

However I am pretty sure on my conclusion regarding Guard vs. Overwatch. I am running the numbers in more detail now.

[Thing What Kicks]

Okay, Overwatch vs. Guard with Stormbolters.

Conclusions:

Power Fist - Always use Overwatch.

Lorenzo - If you will get 2+ Overwatch shots, use Overwatch. With only 1 shot, use Guard instead.

Notes:

A Power Fist should always use Overwatch, even if there is only 1 shot. (Contrary to what I thought earlier, that Guard was slightly better.) With one melee attack: on Guard the GS gets the kill 47.7% of the time, with Overwatch the GS gets the kill 45.8% of the time. With more GS melee attacks the probability goes up significantly, but the Terminator always has better chances with Overwatch than Guard. And if there is more than 1 space of Overwatch fire, Overwatch is vastly better. (Guard stays the same of course.)

For Lorenzo, a GS has a 25.2% chance of killing him if he only gets 1 Overwatch shot, but only an 18.1% chance if he is using Guard. So Guard is much better in this case. However, with 2 shots of Overwatch, the GS has only an 11.2% chance of killing Lorenzo. So switch to Overwatch then.

[Andvari]

Remember though that if you are attacked in close combat you lose Overwatch, while Guard will keep working.