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Honestly, Coco is 100% guaranteed, but I have a tiny worry about Rushia, considering the reason she left. Though I imagine Cover wouldn't be so petty as to prevent it from happening or even prohibiting the talents to play the game anymore in case it did happen.
Now Aloe is almost guaranteed to not be included. It's just as you said, there's too little material to make a playable character out of her. I wouldn't be opposed to more nods to her just so the opportunity isn't completely missed.
My take is that we get JP3 and JP4 in one big update like the whole ID branch. All 10 of them. Then JP5 and JP6 in another update. Gen 5 is just NePoLaBo, but new items could still have Aloe references.
But given that we're also due for a PekoCasino, I'm guessing they'll cut back on character releases a bit and just have Gen 3 plus Casino on the next update.
Considering every ID gen had only 3 members, I see no problem in giving those gens only 4. I am sure Coco will be playable since she is still considered an Alumni but Rushia and Aloe? No way.
As for Rushia, I don't think anything prevents adding her, it's just that it may be a touchy subject for other holomems, so it's more about handling it, for the lack of the better word, tactfully.
Kay Yu had a long in-person talk with Cover, that's when Steam release got discussed, and I'm pretty sure Rushia's addition was discussed too.
Coco might make an appearance since she's on cover's alumnus.