Events - Randomness in Event Appearance and Choice Results - Spoilers Marked Please

[Yuriken]

I'm most of the way through my first playthrough, and I am trying to understand what could be different in subsequent playthroughs.

For a possible comparison, consider FTL: Faster than Light. In that game - the events you are presented with, the timing/location of the event, as well as the possible solutions and outcomes are all based on a combination of randomness and some from your prior choices. In fact, the same choices can (and often do) result in different possible outcomes in other playthroughs. For example - you can choose to take that random guy floating in space onto your ship - he may be a simple new crew member, or he may be a violent criminal who kills two of your crew and then himself, or it could be a trap for your enemies to track you...all different possible results from selecting "let him on my ship" as an option.

Contrast this with a more "virtual" choices or "on-rails" experience - similar to some decisions in The Walking Dead (Telltale version) - where it feels like your choices matter, but they really don't influence the larger story or even your own party in any recognizable way (e.g. "Should I go left or right?" - where both lead to the same ends.)

Using a spoiler example, from what I believe to be a non-random event:
Gunnulf is trying to save a cart from falling from a cliff. If you try to attack the Dredge on the cart, Gunnulf dies. If you try to save the cart, Gunnulf dies. If you convince him to back away, Gunnulf lives.
Are these the only outcomes? Is there a probability (even if low,) that picking the same option in a different playthrough will yield a different outcome?

Using a spoiler example, from what I think could possibly be a random event:
After visiting Haukstorp, I was headed toward Sigrholm and encountered a group of outlaws. I took them with me, and they later abandoned me and took some stuff. I had a few other possible options.
Do all players always encounter this event during this portion of the game, assuming they took the same travel branch? As above - are the outcomes always the same result from each of the options?

I guess the heart of what I'm getting at is:

• Outside of the major main story points, are these events "on-rails" or could they be different?
  
• Do the different options presented each have the same results every time? If not, is it random, or is it influenced by other, earlier decisions?

And then the logical extension is this: has someone begun to document these possible conversation arcs and results for the community? As an example from FTL - see this Wiki: http://ftlwiki.com/wiki/Events#Madman_Stranded_on_a_Moon

As you can see, you have 2-4 options, based on your current ship and party. If you select one option, the subset of possible outcomes is still randomized.

If events are in a fixed order, and the results are fixed as well - wouldn't it then be possible to pre-plan a playthrough for the ideal rewards/outcomes/achievements you're looking for, and always know the preferred answer to an event (assuming one exists.)

[[HLF]Poison Berrie]

There are quite a few events that are random, though the results are as far as I'm aware fixed.

[whyhowwhich]

I have had one play through following a couple of restarts and a few reloads. As far as I can tell the game is very much 'on-rails' and it became quickly apparent to me that the outcome of my choices was often arbitrary and of trivial consequence to the game as a whole.

I have been ranting about this game in numerous posts and trashing it at almost every oportunity so obviously my opinion is jaded but I would describe the game's claim that "strategic choices directly affect your personal experience as well as the outcome of tactical conflicts" as largely fraudulent.

Some posts on here claim that regardless of what decisions you make the game forces the same outcome. This seems to be the case with Ekkil and Onef who you encounter at the end of chapter two (i think). I couldn't testify to this myself but certainly when the story returned to that point in chapter 4 the decisions i had made earlier seemed irrelivent to the continuing action.

As you have observed some events are random and do not repeat if you reload the game but may be replaced with other events. Other events, such as the Gonnulf one you quote, are fixed and their outcomes more significant although in the grand scheme of things still trivial. The main thread of the story does not change at all and at best or worst your decisions will only effect which minor characters join or leave the caravan or die. Given that the game boasts 25 playable characters and you can only ever field 6 at a time even the random and arbitrary loss of a character because of a text based choice results in nothing more consequential than irritation and a feeling of being cheated by this game.

[Yuriken]

It is clear you've taken on a negative view, but I appreciate some of your comments. I, for one, do enjoy the game quite a bit. I also believe that your connection (or lack thereof) to these characters would determine how much it will "affect your personal experience." Losing some of the characters I have did have an impact on how I fought, and even how combat ("tactical conflicts") worked...In particular, losing some who you like or have invested heavily into can be painful both from a story perspective and from a combat perspective.

While it seems that some choices lead to the same outcomes (e.g. Trying to avoid Ridgehorn does no good,) there are some that change things considerably if you aren't save-scumming all your choices (e.g. losing Mogun & Hogun at the gate in Frostvellr.) That could lose you two characters as well as access to their class (which I don't think you get elsewhere?) Also - while there may be "25 playable characters" - in my playthrough I often couldn't even field an entire squad of 6, and only very rarely did I leave 1-2 people on the bench until the last 15-20% of the game game. In my game, I lost Egil to a Dredge protecting Alette, Yrsa abandoned after a fire incident, Mogun and Hogun to a riot outside the gates, and Krumr at Einartoft. I also lost Gunnulf, but I was weak and so I restored a save to choose differently. The lack of these characters in my group has likely had a significant impact on my game, especially in combat. Frakkin' Dredge!

Is there a spoiler-full wiki where people are putting together these results? I know the "official" one is here: http://bannersaga.gamepedia.com/The_Banner_Saga_Wiki However, most of the content seems to revolve around Factions (the multiplayer Free-to-Play Banner Saga game.)