why do only good heirs die through events? ...

[Nils]

I´ve played this game far roughly 700 hours now and I see almost every very good heir, every second good heir and every 5th decent heir die through events but i cant remember ever loosing a bad heir through events. Is there such a condition for those events just to piss players off or am i imagining things?

[Xandurz]

It seems they were too good for their own good.

I have not tried searching if such conditions exist, but then I had a pretty even gameplay with good and bad heirs (or so it seems to me).

[Xara]

It's just a memory bias where you tend to remember the bad things that happened while glossing over all the times that your good heirs DID survive, or when a really ♥♥♥♥♥♥ one died young.

There's events that can give you good, or even spectacular heirs now and again. I had one where a baby was just born and I got to choose between 3 names with varied stats, except one of them was a 'Caesar' with 6 / 6 / 5. Guess what I picked?

[Nils]

@ Xara please stop posting meaningless posts. U suck and i got that star-heir event 2 times till now and both times died ceasar before beeing crownd.

[Bandit17]

I have to side with Nils on this one. In my experience I can almost guarantee that when I get a really good heir that I will soon after get an event where he/she might die or that my current crappy ruler lives so long that the good heir dies before my ruler does. I would say it's around 75% that one of the two above happens to me.

[Xara]

Originally posted by Nils:

@ Xara please stop posting meaningless posts. U suck and i got that star-heir event 2 times till now and both times died ceasar before beeing crownd.

Wow, how wonderful, thanks for the insult, I'm sure your attitude makes every game a joy.

[Zeromentor]

This isn't memory bias from my experience, as I have never had a bad heir (under 2/2/2) die to an event, but a majority of good heirs (over 4 in one or two points) will die.

Infact, in over 200 hours of Ironman gameplay, in have missed out on the 5/5/5 ruler achievement cause the game killed my heir five times.

Average heirs tend to survive for me. Those being around 3/3/3 in stats, and usually similar to their 'father'.

[Bitter]

Originally posted by Nils:

@ Xara please stop posting meaningless posts. U suck and i got that star-heir event 2 times till now and both times died ceasar before beeing crownd.

In my recent Prussia game I've had a couple 4/3/3 or 6/4/4 heirs live for 40 years and then a 6/6/6 heir die 1 year after birth.

This would be the Random Number Generator at work.

My guess would be Xara got lucky, while you didn't get lucky the insult wasn't needed.

[Xara]

Originally posted by Zeromentor:

in have missed out on the 5/5/5 ruler achievement cause the game killed my heir five times.

Pick a republic and keep re-electing your guy.

[Xara]

And for the record here are the events which kill your heir.

# A beloved heir dies
country_event = {
id = 9451
title = "EVTNAME9451"
desc = "EVTDESC9451"
picture = DEATH_OF_HEIR_eventPicture

trigger = {
has_heir = yes
heir_claim = 90
is_female = no
NOT = {
is_lesser_in_union = yes
}
has_regency = no
government = monarchy
}

mean_time_to_happen = {
months = 3600
}

option = {
name = "EVTOPTA9451"
kill_heir = yes
random_owned_province = {
limit = {
NOT = {
has_building = temple
}
}
add_building = temple
}
}

option = {
name = "EVTOPTB9451"
kill_heir = yes
define_heir = {
dynasty = ROOT
claim = 30



# Heir Falls ill
country_event = {
id = 9456
title = "EVTNAME9456"
desc = "EVTDESC9456"
picture = PLAGUE_eventPicture

trigger = {
has_heir = yes
government = monarchy
is_lesser_in_union = no
}

mean_time_to_happen = {
months = 2400
}
option = {
name = "EVTOPTA9456"
add_years_of_income = -0.2
random_list = {
50 = { kill_heir = yes}
50 = { add_legitimacy = 5}
}
}

option = {
name = "EVTOPTB9456"
random_list = {
75 = { kill_heir = yes}
25 = { add_legitimacy = 30}
}



# Hunting accident
country_event = {
id = 9459
title = "EVTNAME9459"
desc = "EVTDESC9459"
picture = DEATH_OF_HEIR_eventPicture

trigger = {
has_heir = yes
heir_age = 15
is_lesser_in_union = no
}
mean_time_to_happen = {
months = 2700
}
option = {
name = "EVTOPTA9459"
kill_heir = yes
add_stability = -1
}
option = {
name = "EVTOPTB9459"
kill_heir = yes
add_prestige = -25
}




None of them are triggered by or weighted in favor of any A/D/M stats.
aka : Memory bias.

[Orcon]

I've had bad heirs die. It's probably nothing more than bad luck.

Edit: Xara it may not be comfirmation bias, he may very well have gotten the shot end of the stick in terms of statistics (ie luck).

[Xara]

Blaming it on 'bad luck' is still confirmation bias if you ignore all the times your great leader lived to be 70, when you had a string of +1 stability events, that time you got a PU with France as Navarre. 'Bad luck' and 'Good luck' even out over time. It's simply a fact that we, as humans, tend to get pissed at something annoying happening rather than remembering how much time passed where things went OK. And there is no bias whatsoever in the events.

[Orcon]

I was refering to the comfirmation bias with regards his observation that the game is selecting good heirs to die over bad ones, nothing more. In his game he may very well have had only good heirs die. You are refering to the general comfirmation bias of the game mechanics as a whole being stacked against him, I agree with you that this is likely not the case as everyone experiences good and bad runs.

[Thyriel]

I agree its just remembering bad things better...
So for example i remember Maria Theresa I dying as child in my game, but nearly forgot the couple events where i was glad that a 0/0/x throne follower died in the pray/doctor popup.
But i remember more the situations where those overlived the 75% chance to die


btw can it be that certain dynastys tend to have longer living kings ? I was just curious, playing as austria a lot of them got over 60, while as portugal they mostly died in late 40s

[Xandurz]

Originally posted by Thyriel:

I agree its just remembering bad things better...
So for example i remember Maria Theresa I dying as child in my game, but nearly forgot the couple events where i was glad that a 0/0/x throne follower died in the pray/doctor popup.
But i remember more the situations where those overlived the 75% chance to die


btw can it be that certain dynastys tend to have longer living kings ? I was just curious, playing as austria a lot of them got over 60, while as portugal they mostly died in late 40s

To add more speculation into this thread.

In my games I found out that: pray/doctor events have a better chance of having your heir live if you choose pray, rather than doctor (He's a quack).
It might be a confirmation bias on my part though, since the percentage in tooltip says it should be otherwise. lol

[Modes]

I agree with Xara -> Memory bias.