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Iberian wedding happens a little more often but nowhere near 100% either. You can prevent it from happening by being at war with Aragon and you can help it along by trying to kill off your heir for a female one then killing off your ruler. The main restriction on it is opposite sex rulers or regency in Aragon(but that has a mtth of 10 years instead of 1) so that is why you want to kill.
And yes the universe dislikes anyone who thinks it would care about them.
Tried it out a few times, and everytime I played France and didnt fight against Burgundy, the king never died. Should be the same with Castille and Aragon.
Every time Burgundy is at war before 1500 there is a chance that an event will fire to kill both the king and the heir. The war going badly for Burgundy increases the chance.
Also they tend to ally with Castile which makes it so they obliterate me in war