Is there a problem with Burgundy Inheritance now?

[Warlordnipple]

I have previously ogtten this event to fire as France by going to war with Burgundy. In my current game I have been at war with them for over 20 years and no event. They have no Regency I declared war when their king was 15 he is 36 now. I took every province about 3 years into the war, so it has been about 17 years at 100% warscore. The King is named Charles I so unless that is a very strangely named woman I was pretty sure the event should fire. I am not the HRE and am not allied to Austria.

[Radene]

Sometimes it fires, sometimes it doesn't. It's not a guaranteed event, but in my games it fires more often than not (except if I'm playing Austria, then it never fires.)

[Emerald "DeadEye" Flint]

Well Austria has the mission Burgundy Inheritance, that's a sure way to get the PU. You need to have more provinces than Burgundy and must be at peace to select it.

[Radene]

Originally posted by Emerald "DeadEye" Flint:

Well Austria has the mission Burgundy Inheritance, that's a sure way to get the PU. You need to have more provinces than Burgundy and must be at peace to select it.

Not what I mean. I mean, it HAS fired when I was Austria and I could claim the Low Counties, it just seems to always happen when I'm NOT playing Austria, but at least it keeps France and Austria at each other's throats.

It's the event that kills both the king and the heir of Burgundy (much more likely if Burgundy is in a war since that's how it happened historically), that ends up with Burgundian lands being split between France and HRE emperor. (Both can opt to not claim them, but the AI always claims them, and so does a player, most of the time.)

[Thoraxe41]

I do believe, the event is more related to Burgendy Having there king die, without a hier before the year xxxx. Just being at war, doesn't guarentee it.

[Radene]

Originally posted by dadummy93:

I do believe, the event is more related to Burgendy Having there king die, without a hier before the year xxxx. Just being at war, doesn't guarentee it.

Nothing "guarantees" that event. There's no way to be 100% sure you can force it to happen in its alloted time slot.

[Warlordnipple]

Uh its mean time to happen basically means that it should happen at some point and if you take over all of burgundy as france the MTTH should be so low that it will fire after at most around 130 months going for 240 months would virtually guaruntee that it fires according to the way the old event works and it does not anymore.

[Kagemin]

Originally posted by Warlordnipple:

Uh its mean time to happen basically means that it should happen at some point and if you take over all of burgundy as france the MTTH should be so low that it will fire after at most around 130 months going for 240 months would virtually guaruntee that it fires according to the way the old event works and it does not anymore.

Mtth (mean time to happen) is another way of showing a monthly chance, and as such there never can be a guarantee regardless of time passed. If you're lucky it'll happen right away as soon as you meet the minimum requirements, if you're unlucky it'll never fire despite you doing everything to increase your chances.

If I remember correctly the way mtth works is that after the specified amount of time the event will have happened in 50% of the cases.

[Warlordnipple]

Originally posted by Kageryuu:

Originally posted by Warlordnipple:

Uh its mean time to happen basically means that it should happen at some point and if you take over all of burgundy as france the MTTH should be so low that it will fire after at most around 130 months going for 240 months would virtually guaruntee that it fires according to the way the old event works and it does not anymore.

Mtth (mean time to happen) is another way of showing a monthly chance, and as such there never can be a guarantee regardless of time passed. If you're lucky it'll happen right away as soon as you meet the minimum requirements, if you're unlucky it'll never fire despite you doing everything to increase your chances.

If I remember correctly the way mtth works is that after the specified amount of time the event will have happened in 50% of the cases.

I understand MTTH and I understand how probabilities work. MTTH means that they take 100% and divide it by that many months. By my calculations the MTTH was ~130 months and I included Burgundy as a lucky nation even though it probably wasn't to put it into a percent it would be 1/130 which would equal .00769 ill just make this .0077 so the equation does not get crazy. To get a percent you multiply that by 100 so that means every month there is 0.77% chance of the event firing.

Now probabilities come in so every month there is a .77% chance of the event firing using a Binomial Equation
(A good one can be found here http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspxl)

With N being 130 months, k being anything >1, p being .0077, and q obviousbly being .9923 we see that the answer would be .6339 or 63.39% that the event would fire after 130 months. This goes up to 84.35% at 240 months which I have gone passed at this point. I am not sure the exact equation that should go into this because in reality this should stop as soon as the event fires once and this equation just shows the chance it will fire one or more times. If anyone knows the proper equation please let me know, but this shows that the event has a very high chance of firing.

Trust me I 100% understand how events work but at >84% I would think that the event would of fired, just wondering if anything about the event has changed it the last few patches.

[Radene]

Originally posted by Warlordnipple:

I understand MTTH and I understand how probabilities work. MTTH means that they take 100% and divide it by that many months. By my calculations the MTTH was ~130 months and I included Burgundy as a lucky nation even though it probably wasn't to put it into a percent it would be 1/130 which would equal .00769 ill just make this .0077 so the equation does not get crazy. To get a percent you multiply that by 100 so that means every month there is 0.77% chance of the event firing.

Now probabilities come in so every month there is a .77% chance of the event firing using a Binomial Equation
(A good one can be found here http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspxl)

With N being 130 months, k being anything >1, p being .0077, and q obviousbly being .9923 we see that the answer would be .6339 or 63.39% that the event would fire after 130 months. This goes up to 84.35% at 240 months which I have gone passed at this point. I am not sure the exact equation that should go into this because in reality this should stop as soon as the event fires once and this equation just shows the chance it will fire one or more times. If anyone knows the proper equation please let me know, but this shows that the event has a very high chance of firing.

Trust me I 100% understand how events work but at >84% I would think that the event would of fired, just wondering if anything about the event has changed it the last few patches.

http://www.eu4wiki.com/Events

The MTTH is explained there (under the relatively safe assumption that EU4 uses the same probability calculations as EU3 did).

If the probability of an event firing is less than 100% each month, then there's literally no guarantee it will ever fire. The passage of time only makes the event increasingly more likely to have happened by the given time.

In order to guarantee (as in, make 100% sure it will have fired) an event with a >1 probability to fire you need an infinite number of months.

It's easy to fall into the gambler's fallacy, because whether or not the event is going to fire is independent each month. The game doesn't "remember" past rolls, and doesn't skew the probability in favor of future rolls.

That's why betting on red will still have your probability to win at slightly less than 50%, even if the ball landed on black 1000 times until that point.

[Kagemin]

Originally posted by Warlordnipple:

Originally posted by Kageryuu:

Mtth (mean time to happen) is another way of showing a monthly chance, and as such there never can be a guarantee regardless of time passed. If you're lucky it'll happen right away as soon as you meet the minimum requirements, if you're unlucky it'll never fire despite you doing everything to increase your chances.

If I remember correctly the way mtth works is that after the specified amount of time the event will have happened in 50% of the cases.

I understand MTTH and I understand how probabilities work. MTTH means that they take 100% and divide it by that many months. By my calculations the MTTH was ~130 months and I included Burgundy as a lucky nation even though it probably wasn't to put it into a percent it would be 1/130 which would equal .00769 ill just make this .0077 so the equation does not get crazy. To get a percent you multiply that by 100 so that means every month there is 0.77% chance of the event firing.

Now probabilities come in so every month there is a .77% chance of the event firing using a Binomial Equation
(A good one can be found here http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspxl)

With N being 130 months, k being anything >1, p being .0077, and q obviousbly being .9923 we see that the answer would be .6339 or 63.39% that the event would fire after 130 months. This goes up to 84.35% at 240 months which I have gone passed at this point. I am not sure the exact equation that should go into this because in reality this should stop as soon as the event fires once and this equation just shows the chance it will fire one or more times. If anyone knows the proper equation please let me know, but this shows that the event has a very high chance of firing.

Trust me I 100% understand how events work but at >84% I would think that the event would of fired, just wondering if anything about the event has changed it the last few patches.

So there's a ~16% chance of it not happening. I don't see what's so strange here.

[Warlordnipple]

Originally posted by Kageryuu:

Originally posted by Warlordnipple:

I understand MTTH and I understand how probabilities work. MTTH means that they take 100% and divide it by that many months. By my calculations the MTTH was ~130 months and I included Burgundy as a lucky nation even though it probably wasn't to put it into a percent it would be 1/130 which would equal .00769 ill just make this .0077 so the equation does not get crazy. To get a percent you multiply that by 100 so that means every month there is 0.77% chance of the event firing.

Now probabilities come in so every month there is a .77% chance of the event firing using a Binomial Equation
(A good one can be found here http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspxl)

With N being 130 months, k being anything >1, p being .0077, and q obviousbly being .9923 we see that the answer would be .6339 or 63.39% that the event would fire after 130 months. This goes up to 84.35% at 240 months which I have gone passed at this point. I am not sure the exact equation that should go into this because in reality this should stop as soon as the event fires once and this equation just shows the chance it will fire one or more times. If anyone knows the proper equation please let me know, but this shows that the event has a very high chance of firing.

Trust me I 100% understand how events work but at >84% I would think that the event would of fired, just wondering if anything about the event has changed it the last few patches.

So there's a ~16% chance of it not happening. I don't see what's so strange here.

That is if the event only happened once, it has a small chance of happening every month and has not happened. The equivalent of what you are saying is that you flip a coin 1000 times and getting heads 840 times in a row and then saying there is nothing wrong with the coin even though you have yet to flip a tails.

[Radene]

Originally posted by Warlordnipple:

Originally posted by Kageryuu:

So there's a ~16% chance of it not happening. I don't see what's so strange here.

That is if the event only happened once, it has a small chance of happening every month and has not happened. The equivalent of what you are saying is that you flip a coin 1000 times and getting heads 840 times in a row and then saying there is nothing wrong with the coin even though you have yet to flip a tails.

There might be nothing wrong with the coin. In an infinite series of iterations, "patterns" due to randomness will emerge. The longer you toss that coin, the more probably have you run into a streak. Each and every toss is independent. As I said, the coin doesn't "remember". If you have thrown 840 tails, the probability of the next toss being either heads or tails is STILL fifty-fifty.

Basically, the probability that you'll get a streak of 840 is low indeed, but the probability of 841th being heads or tails is absolutely independent from what has happened so far. A streak is not very likely at all, however, it's also not proof of the coin having been tampered with.

Now of course, I'm not sure how truly "random" the RNG in EU4 is. Or if it uses a preudo-random seed.

[Warlordnipple]

Originally posted by Radene:

Originally posted by Warlordnipple:

That is if the event only happened once, it has a small chance of happening every month and has not happened. The equivalent of what you are saying is that you flip a coin 1000 times and getting heads 840 times in a row and then saying there is nothing wrong with the coin even though you have yet to flip a tails.

There might be nothing wrong with the coin. In an infinite series of iterations, "patterns" due to randomness will emerge. The longer you toss that coin, the more probably have you run into a streak. Each and every toss is independent. As I said, the coin doesn't "remember". If you have thrown 840 tails, the probability of the next toss being either heads or tails is STILL fifty-fifty.

Basically, the probability that you'll get a streak of 840 is low indeed, but the probability of 841th being heads or tails is absolutely independent from what has happened so far. A streak is not very likely at all, however, it's also not proof of the coin having been tampered with.

Now of course, I'm not sure how truly "random" the RNG in EU4 is. Or if it uses a preudo-random seed.

I never said that it should of fired, I am not sure why people are reading my post as I AM ENRAGED THAT THE EVENT HAS NOT FIRED AND DEMAND THAT IT FIRE. I have up to this point never had to wait this long for the event to fire and was asking if perhaps the event had changed since the wiki was update with what the event required to fire. Before this game it always fired within 15 years and usually before 10. I was just trying to see if anything had changed because of how unlikely the situation was.

I also never said it was proof of whether the coin had been tampered with, I am suggesting at that point that a person should ask IF the coin has been tampered with.

[Radene]

Originally posted by Warlordnipple:

See, there's your problem.

[Kagemin]

Originally posted by Warlordnipple:

I never said that it should of fired, I am not sure why people are reading my post as I AM ENRAGED THAT THE EVENT HAS NOT FIRED AND DEMAND THAT IT FIRE. I have up to this point never had to wait this long for the event to fire and was asking if perhaps the event had changed since the wiki was update with what the event required to fire. Before this game it always fired within 15 years and usually before 10. I was just trying to see if anything had changed because of how unlikely the situation was.

I also never said it was proof of whether the coin had been tampered with, I am suggesting at that point that a person should ask IF the coin has been tampered with.

I'm not aware of any recent changes to the triggers of that event, no. And you really got lucky with the event before it seems, in my games it more often than not does not fire at all.