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Basically, you want to have a royal marriage with Burgundy and be their strongest ally. And by "strongest ally," I mean the one with the most total provinces. Some other special conditions apply if you're France or the Emperor of the HRE.
Note that there's RNG involved, and being the strongest ally with a royal marriage does not guarantee things go your way. Other important factors beyond RNG are the year, Burgundy's rivalries, who is on their throne, and whether or not they have an heir. Sometimes, the event chain never starts at all.
If you get the inheritance, Burgundy becomes a personal union subject of yours. A later event may fire that integrates it for free. This event can't happen when you're at war and also has some time constraints.
Read all the events in the link for full details.
I find it pretty consistent when marrying Burgundy with any other christian nation, tbh. When not going for it i also see Burgundy going to some random nation they were allied to instead of the emperor or France the vast majority of times.
I just had a game as Castile where I alt-F4 four times and didn't get it. France went to war for it once, Austria inherited twice and the last time some minor HRE nation inherited.
Your definition of consistent is very different than my own.
Yup, this. As Castile, I'm sure you were larger than any minor HRE nation. If you were playing with the current version and if you had a royal marriage with Burgundy, the only possible choices were you, France, the Emperor, and no one.
So, are you playing with the current version of the game? In almost all previous patches, you had to be the one who sent the marriage request to Burgundy. If they sent it to you, it broke when their ruler died and you became ineligible as a result. This was changed very recently, however.
Could something have happened to end the RM that you didn't notice? Your monarch dying?
I'd guess Burgundy rivaled him again and broke it.
Also, does it require being an ally now? I know it used to just be the largest nation with a rm / France / HRE...
Nope, just the marriage. But Burgundy is a good alliance to have, so if I marry them, I also ally them.
You must be the one to send the marriage request,
if you accept the marriage from them instead it ends upon the ruler death and before the event trigger, so you are not eligable
This depends on which game version you're playing as it was changed in one of the more recent patches.
That problem is thankfully gone.