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It's not the case and you're still wrong. The AI constantly makes what you would call "worthless" allies regardless of whether the human player is nearby or not. Start a non-ironman game and tag switch your way around the world after a few years in which you play Hawaii. Check out how many weak and unhelpful allies great powers and other strong nations have.
You feel persecuted by the AI because of perceptual bias, not reality.
I have seen France allying Genoa while playing as Hamburg but not now that I am Theodoro/Gothia (and wanted to eat their land, and as soon as Genoa left the HRE i Attacked them), but not during my run as Naples. In fact, that run as Naples was dissapointing, Siena and the Pope got weak allies so I became a great power very little after the start, I ate Siena during my first war, it was my first provinces conquest, a war against the Pope, Siena, Mantua and Ragusa.
If you only pay attention to what the AI does against you, you are missing a ♥♥♥♥ ton of things, and obviously you will think that everything is a complot against you.
Sometimes happens, sometimes not, which means that AI does not target the player.
But you can keep on it. It is pointless to keep that "discussion" on, you won't believe anyone that is not saying what you want to read, so...
I just happen to roll the worst possible starts for every nation I pick, is basically what I'm hearing. Which I don't believe.
Hell, I used to buff some enemy nations to make them a midgame boss for more fun before I started exclusively playing in ironman or multiplayer.
The AI targets players. It's not my perception bias that's ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ me up, it's your observation bias that's confusing you guys. You've read the game files, you've heard statements from the people who made the game, and you've assumed that both were completely honest and that there aren't just some hidden or encrypted values somewhere and that paradox isn't just full of ♥♥♥♥.
I'm talking about my own experience since I really understand how the game works. Lots of runs in which I have seen form the most usual things (Tunis and the Ottomans as allies) to the weirdest things (as Ming controlling half of Asia or having a 3PM Portugal as the only colonizer till past 1550) while I was or not close to those places/nations or un/involved to the nations.
But yeah, you and only you have the truth on your side...
I have 8000 hours and I say you're the one who's wrong. As was PROVEN on the first page of this thread by grotaclas when he conclusively refuted your claim that the player couldn't ally Poland as Stettin on Day 1. Your response included this gem:
Kuma, you have zero credibility as a result of this.
And if the player can ally Poland on day 1 is a moot point, because you never showed any evidence that the AI did this on day 1. But if the alliance happens later, there are a bunch of more things which would have been possible. E.g. a royal marriage and improving relations which are both things that the AI does regularly. And what the player can is irrelevant for the claim that the Poland AI targets a player Brandenburg by allying Stettin. For that you would have to run many tests in a controlled setting in which either the AI plays Brandenburg or you play Brandenburg in exactly the same way that the AI does it and then compare the outcomes.
As I said, my previous run was as Mzab, and you know what? Djerb and Tuggurt allied to each other, and no one else, no garanties neither. I ate them at the first month tick. After that it was a patience game wating for the moment the CtA of Tunis or Tlemcen would not happen, so I could attack one of them (it was a opm tlemcen, eaten by Tunis+Morocco, by the way). No big boy helping Djerb nor Tuggurt. And I have as many examples as this one as you want. Obviously I have examples of alliances being bad for me, but this is what happens with RNG, sometimes it smacks you, sometimes it helps you.
So either the spreadsheet is broken and the math that runs the game isn't working, properly, or there's a value in there somewhere that simply says if_player=1 %chanceallyneighbor=25 or whatever computer language bullshite and someone's missed it or it's hidden.