The dutch republic?

[hejtord]

I formed netherlands as burgundy by the event dutch republic hasnt fired yet(the year is 1650), do you have to be protestant(I'm reformed)?

[Bitter]

Besides the fact that Netherlands general religion is Reformed, It fires like Archduchy, sometimes it takes a while and sometimes it takes a short time.

[Alex]

I'm pretty sure the event fires between 1550 and 1600, maybe I'm wrong.

[Pippin123]

Is that the one ?
#Constitutionalism and the General Estates
country_event = {
id = flavor_hol.3502

trigger = {
OR = {
AND = {
tag = HOL
NOT = { exists = NED }
}
tag = NED
}
is_year = 1580
NOT = { is_year = 1621 }
NOT = {
government = dutch_republic
}
}

mean_time_to_happen = {
months = 200
}

option = {
name = "flavor_hol.EVTOPTA3502" #Confederacy with traces of Monarchism
change_government = dutch_republic
}
option = {
name = "flavor_hol.EVTOPTB3502" #Confederacy on Republican Model
change_government = administrative_republic
}
option = {
name = "flavor_hol.EVTOPTC3502" #Centralized Monarchy
change_government = monarchy
}
}
There's no condition over than the date : from 1580 to 1620.
Mean time to happen has no modifier ever, so it's a 0.5% chance per month for it to fire.
Probably to get it after n months is p=100%-(100%-0.5%)^n
Probability for it to trigger over any given playthrough (40y = 480 months) si ~91%

But in your case (1650) it is too late, it won't fire.