"Heir has fallen ill" event means 100% chance of death.

[Karcel]

I have played quite a bit of EU IV and everytime this event pops, no matter if I choose to pray for him or send a medicus the heir dies ALWAYS.
So now I got the event again and I wanted to try something. I saved the game and did a total of 50 tries on each of the two options.
Option 1: Send a medicus, the tooltip says 50% success chance.
50/50 dead 0/50 alive
Option 2: Pray for the heir, the tooltip says its a 25% success chance
50/50 dead 0/50 alive

I mean, why are they even saying there is a chance? This is pretty hard evidence to the heir dying 100% of the time. Just give me the event and say "The heir died from illness." instead of giving me false hope.

[Totally Innocent Chatbot]

The RNG for this event is not rolled the moment you click an option, it is rolled several days or months in advance, so you cannot simply save cheese it like this.

[Karcel]

Originally posted by Totally Innocent Chatbot:

The RNG for this event is not rolled the moment you click an option, it is rolled several days or months in advance, so you cannot simply save cheese it like this.

Then again, if it is rolled in advance why give me options then? Just tell me he died or lived.

[grotaclas]

The random seed which is used to determine the outcome of random effects in events is determined when the event opens. If the event triggered via MTTH or via pulse, the seed is random. If the event was triggered by the country_event effect(e.g. from another event), the random seed will be based on the random seed from the location which executed the country_event effect. So event chains which use country_event to trigger the next event in the chain, have their randomness determined when the first event in the chain happens.

That's why you can't savescum the randomness in an event which is already open. The chances which are displayed in the event are true if you look at multiple instances of that event. For example if you would get the "Heir has fallen ill" event 100 times and would always have chosen the medicus option, the heir would have survived in 50% of these events. And if you would have chosen the praying option, the heir would have survived 25% of the time.

[grotaclas]

To add to my previous comment: I did a few tests and I think that both event options use the same random number. The implementation will differ, but let's say that it is a number from 1 to 100 then a number between 1 and 50 will cause heir to die in the first option and a number between 51 and 100 will allow the heir to survive in the first option. And in the second option a number between 1 and 75 will kill the heir and a number between 76 and 100 will allow the heir to survive. So if you roll anything between 1 and 50, the heir will die no matter what you choose, but if you roll something between 51 and 75, the heir will survive in the first option, but die in the second option and if you roll something between 76 and 100, the heir will survive no matter what you choose.

[RCMidas]

Originally posted by Karcel:

Originally posted by Totally Innocent Chatbot:

The RNG for this event is not rolled the moment you click an option, it is rolled several days or months in advance, so you cannot simply save cheese it like this.

Then again, if it is rolled in advance why give me options then? Just tell me he died or lived.

Not entirely how it works, though unless you're familiar with how this sort of thing is normally done, thinking otherwise is entirely reasonable. As an example:

When you start the game, a random number is generated that is between 1 and 100 inclusive. Whenever an event calls for a random chance, the base chance is that random number which was generated on at game start. This number may be modified or replaced by others over the course of a campaign, either temporarily or permanently.

Of course, it's vastly more complicated than just a single number being rolled, but that is the core principle.

[vdarkcharlie]

This event has happened to me several times during the years I've been played this game. In both options I've had success and failure. You play this game long enough you too will have success with your choice. When that happens, come back to this thread and let us know.

[Karcel]

Originally posted by vdarkcharlie:

This event has happened to me several times during the years I've been played this game. In both options I've had success and failure. You play this game long enough you too will have success with your choice. When that happens, come back to this thread and let us know.

I mean I got 1k+ hours which is a good amount but not a "veteran of the game" amount of hours if you know what I mean.
However, after all these hours and dozens of times I got this event surely I should've had success at least once.

[grotaclas]

Originally posted by Karcel:

Originally posted by vdarkcharlie:

This event has happened to me several times during the years I've been played this game. In both options I've had success and failure. You play this game long enough you too will have success with your choice. When that happens, come back to this thread and let us know.

I mean I got 1k+ hours which is a good amount but not a "veteran of the game" amount of hours if you know what I mean.
However, after all these hours and dozens of times I got this event surely I should've had success at least once.

How often did you get the event? You can easily test that the heir can survive by changing the MTTH for the event in events/Dynastic.txt to 1 month and then trying it out a few times in a row. If your heir dies, you can use the console command add_heir to get a new one, so that you can get the event again

[QTV]

With about 8k hours, I am pretty sure I am quite close to about 50% success rate.

You can always go test it like Grotaclas suggested.