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Note that if you dow the Ottomans in 46-47 you can only bring Georgia and the Ottomans will take mil tech 4 in 1448 so it can end badly. You can always settle for 50-70% ws and then bring the big boys for the next war.
Watch the unrest build
This happens late 1400s
You may sometimes have the island by accident
I always ignore the navy when playing in Ottoman area because it's unnecessary.
I had a good try, but then Poland declared on Hungary, and I was foolish enough to join. That was my mistake, and I should have ignored the war.
But my lattest try, Ottomans declared war on me, 3rd of Janury 1446... That's near impossible to prepare for.
Maybe you could even ally Muscowy on january 1st and the AI propably would attack you still and you could win the war. But remember that they will take the mil tech by 48 so you need to take Gallipoli and blockade the strait.
First Ottoman war I took 6 provinces, but we had to just wait them out till they gave up.
Also understand the strategy for the first few wars better...
Wait for Ottoman armies to leave for a distant war. Occupy their northen provinces, block
strait, and then just wait...
And then I instantly attacked Serbia and annexed them.
After this it gets easier to remove your debuffs.