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Pure inertia kept it going until the Manchu rode it and suborned it entirely into the new Qing dynasty in 1644 - which was right AFTER the Li Zicheng rebellion captured Beijing and declared the Shun dynasty.
Ming in the game is stronger than it was historically because as a player you can overcome its challenges, and because even the AI can usually find a way to endure long after the real dynasty did.
This is because of the HEAVY penalties to combat you suffer from at low mandate levels (Your troops take way more damage) and problems at home can cripple you as well.
What i ended up doing was focusing inwards a bit for the first 30 or so years to stabilize my Empire, then focus on the Nomads to the North (Mainly i split the Mongols from the Oriat and vassalized them to keep the Manchu Tribes and the Oriat separate. Once that was done only then did i go after Kham (Which i vassalized, going for the 5 religious vassal Achievement and still need to get a Christian vassal and a Hindu one which will come shortly). If things are still going bad with high mandate then pick up a Military Idea group as the Ming don't get many Military Bonuses in their National Ideas/ Celestial Reforms. You should not be having any Manpower issues after the first potential immediate war as China prints Manpower and Money once you get the 25% Minimum Autonomy down.
Add in the low morale and combat width of early game tech and you end up with horde armies that can win against Ming armies several times their size.
On a more meta-game level, China kind of has to be restrained because this game heavily encourages snowballing. If Ming was treated like a normal country, they could steamroll south-east asia with little effort, which would make that region much less interesting to play in.
Basically all their potential enemies have better armies than them. Ming's only strength is much greater numbers. They're still the strongest nation in Asia at the start though, given their size. If you're having difficulty winning wars with them then it's player error. TBH your first error is starting wars. Early game Ming shouldn't really be warring. They should be focused completely on tributaries, getting as much mandate as possible to unlock reforms before the age of reformation when that becomes harder, harmonising religions, devving land (particularly for institutions) and generally securing internal stability so when ♥♥♥♥ hits the fan later they're ready for it.
You can win wars, like I said they're still the strongest in Asia, at least in a player's hands, but any land you conquer is just going to make the crises you have to face later more difficult.
After getting over the crises, that's when they can start to go on the offensive and expand.
Ming is the strongest country in the world in 1444. It sounds like you doom stacked yourself and attritioned to death. Basically you roleplayed an insane general leading to Ming's earlier destruction.
Ming is really (ahistorically) good until the extreme late game when the infantry pip difference starts to show, but even this can be ameliorated with EoC mechanics. It is relatively easy to take Ming's strong early game and snowball it into whatever mid-game objective you want.
For Copium Wars, I would just go diplomatic ideas and make a snake to the Baltic while basically ignoring the Mandate mechanics. You can take land while also enforcing a tributary, and as long as your snake ends touching another country you can declare war on, you can make a big nasty snake all the way to the baltic while leaving a chain of sad new tributaries (feeding you manpower or mil points) behind you.
If you take finish Humanist ideas it'll give you Deus Vult which is helpful for when you won't have enough war score to both enforce a tributary and end the war with your snake touching a new target.
Humanist for deus vult as a confucian.
However you can also make many historically alternative paths with many countries, but Ming is one, you are forced to stay weak for very long time. I think Ming also would deserve a different path like England, Austria or other countries.
I think devs do this to prevent AI to blob too much in Asia, though they could simply fix it by giving the AI a low % chance on choosing the alternative path.
And it is not a Ming problem, but Mandate problem. When I took the Mandate with other nation for example Qing, it is just the same, with less disasters, but you are still very limited to expand due to that you need the high mandate to make reforms, once you make reform you are low mandate again, so you can't fight war until going up to 50 again, so you are always in this stupid circle.
You are basically forced to play tall as Chinese emperor.