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Yea I'd say it will be late this year aswell. They are already leaking EU5 and the preferable release date for Paradox is the end of the year. Also they need a major title to release this year after the very poor string of releases late last year
WRT dev diarys as an indicator of where development currently is, Tinto isn't PDS so it's anybody's guess - a year+ would seem likely if they're following the PDS model but less is possible too.
Unless they're a South African muppet. But I don't think Paradox are run by muppets...
Europa Universalis has become a somewhat more problematic title. I'm not going to explain why because I strongly disagree with the idea but I think you know what the objections will be.
Changing the title would free the developers from the shackles of what was in EU4 at the end of 10 years of development and allow them to make a whole new game as a result. Calling it EU5 is problematic because people will want everything that EU4 has at the end of development and accuse the developers of cutting content to sell back ... blah blah blah.
Just think of the freedom they would have were they to throw out pretty much all the systems and start again.
Is this going to happen? I haven't got a clue but I'm explaining my reasoning why I think there might not be a EU5 but a whole new game instead. As far as I know, EU5 may be announced very shortly and so I can't say for certain. I won't mind if they do but I think EU5 is going to be a very difficult thing to pull off.
I feel it all depends on the marketing. No-one is expected a DLC packed EU4 with EU5 but they are still expecting many innovative features. However as I said it all depends on how Paradox market this game. One of the worst Paradox games in recent times is Cities Skylines 2. It's an absolute disaster largely because the features that were marketed in the game simply doesn't work or doesn't work as intended or perhaps were never fully implemented. As long as the Maketing team solely focus on what works well and bring out Mod support on release which is essential I feel a vanilla EU5 will do very well
Skirting around the issue of why some people would object to the title, I don't think Paradox really has to worry about those people- simply on the grounds that their primary initial playerbase will be people who already play EU4, and if you're already playing a Europa Universalis game I think it's safe to assume you don't object to the title very much.
Thats a fair point and i agree with you, i would buy it, if "normal" pricing and not !woke!
Right. I said in my OP that a new IP is possible. However, I don't think Paradox will ever abandon the EU series. It's what made their company in the first place. It has enormous name recognition in the strategy space and a strong gaming history. From a marketing standpoint alone, that's too valuable to throw out. If the "Tinto Talks" diaries are about a game that's not EU5, we'll still get EU5 later on.
Edit: and one final note. The Tinto studio was created for the express purpose of generating EU content. That's all they do.