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It won't fire if you're at war.
The trigger conditions are:
The country:
is England.
is not a subject.
is not allied with France.
is not at war with France.
does not have a truce with France.
Maine (177):
is owned by England or one of its subjects.
France:
exists.
is not a subject.
It is before 1450.
So as long as you haven't fought France, it will normally fire in about a year. HOWEVER, statistics are complex. A mean time to happen of one year means just that: on average, it will occur in a year. But sometimes it will happen faster and sometimes slower. If it happens too much slower, the event will never fire because it has to be "before 1450."
If you want the event to happen, you'll need to restart.
Mods can break anything, but I still say random chance is the most likely cause.
Very true, but in the OP, TheMasterChief said the event never fired at all.