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2. I guess luck still plays a part, but usually i get the Inheritance.
No, the regular PU system works differently than the BI event does. In the normal system the outcome is determined before the ruler dies (more or less) as part of the background code while the BI is an event that acts differently as it goes through several steps sequentially with the first being killing the ruler and all that entails including breaking royal marriages before later checking for the most powerful nation with a royal marriage.
Low relation with the emperor is correct (not necessarily Austria). You need to be the strongest nation with a RM to be selected but I don't know that your relation number has any impact.
In reality, Burgundy went down the Imperial inheritance path. Most of it became part of the Austrian Hapsburg dominions, with some going to France. Later on, Charles V of Spain became the ruler of both Spain and Austria (in game terms, it was a personal union). When he died, the union ended and his lands were split. The Austrian Netherlands were transferred to Spain as part of this process.
EU4 initially made Spain one of the paths in their version of the BI to (vaguely) reflect this, but that path was later changed to the "strongest monarchical ally" we see currently. Sadly, the historical series of events (independent Kingdom of Burgundy to inheritance by Austria and France to personal union of Spain and Austria to transfer of the Low Countries to Spain) isn't possible. I wish it was.
Let's consider our fan favourite most horribly overpowered AI cheat nation, the Ottomans. Within a decade or two of the game start, independence rebellions become a thing of the past, and religious rebels are confined to you trying to convert Shia or Ibadi provinces - historically, the Turks faced endless insurrections, no matter that the majority were less than successful.
If the game modelled this tendency, perhaps by forcing separatist rebellions in all applicable areas when your ruler dies or you white peace/lose a war at 0 or less Stability, we might see even player blobs struggling to hold themselves together. Would make things a little more interesting in the long-term.