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There is a 95% probability that the AI will chose to release Naples.
https://eu4.paradoxwikis.com/Aragonese_events#Neapolitan_Succession_events
Oh I see. I remember having games in the past where they always kept them. And yes Naples. I duno why I always end up saying Nepal.
Before that they'd only lose the Naples PU via normal methods to lose PUs. Seems like in the majority of my games either Aragon or Castile quickly attack Naples to force them into a PU again though. The only exceptions are when Naples can secure a strong ally like France or Austria.
Mine usually didn't do it like ever leading to Naples forming Two Sicilys in every single game. It's fun to see tho. If only the HRE would do something with the Religious Casus belli tho then the Europe game would be perfect.