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Once you know what you're doing Muscovy are crazy strong. The starting economy is poor, yes. But there's lots of land that can be developed easily, and you can funnel trade into your lands from Asia. Plus you can also push down and grab Constantinople from the Ottomans later too.
You won't get behind on ideas or tech once you know how to keep up on institutions. Develop provinces at the right time (ie. when an institution you don't have is available and there's currently a tech penalty for the next tech, or you have literally nothing else to spend them on) and focus on developing a core set of linked provinces. Probably around Moscow itself is best, focus on cheapest to develop (eg. grasslands) and high value trade goods, and also try to develop provinces in a chain so new institutions flow through them easily.
Ming suck, especially in AI hands, and by the time you reach over that far you should be able to wipe the floor with them pretty easily. You should too, then turn all of China into trade companies and become super rich. The only annoying part about fighting Ming is having to move troops back and forward between Europe and Asia, but once you get big enough you'll have enough troops that you can just fight with half of them and leave the other half on the other side.
Poland and Ottomans are your only real threats in Europe. Ottomans are tough, but absolutely beatable. Poland can quite easily be contained, and if anything ever goes wrong with their PU jump on the opportunity to invade Lithuania without them being involved. Although best case scenario you start without Poland as a rival, you then ally them and get them to help you fight Denmark and the Ottos. You could beat them both by yourself, but if you can make it easier, why not?
bruh you wrote so much what I summarised. Yes you can develop but in turn you lose technologies. As Ottomans or Castile you don't...
Not entirely true. Yes, they have some things going for them but there are numerous other nations far stronger than them plus their starting situation is far from ideal. If Novgorod had anything like a chance to get decent allies it would be a nightmare level start rather than just somewhat challenging and that's before the parade of nerfs announced in the latest dev diary land.
The upcoming changes will make them harder for sure. Potentially only early game nerfs though. They look as if they could end up stronger than they currently are mid to late game, it'll just be a bit harder to get them to full strength than it is now.
I wouldn't. France can become Emperor of the HRE very early on, and early Emperor means vassal swarm. It's far more difficult for Russia to do so. France can also get the full Burgundian inheritance a significant percentage of the time, and they can and should take over every province of the game's best trade node (the English Channel) right out of the gate.
If I'm trying to absolutely min/max either country, France crushes Russia.
Not even close for reasons already explained. Muscovy->Russia is probably the most over-rated tag in the game in terms of general opinion. People see the big green blob on the map and think "oooh, scary" when in reality it is mostly low dev crap in Siberia the ai foolishly wasted diplo mp to settle with an army overly comprised of infantry with no real combat bonuses. A complete paper tiger even moreso than the other scary green blob (at least the Ottomans have discipline).
As for the Lithuania thing, for one it's fairly rare, for another it leaves the nightmare scenario of a Novgorod-Lithuania alliance leaving you exactly nowhere to expand without risking a devastating multi-front dogpile happening.
There are reasons the PLC and Sweden are regularly beating Muscovy/Russia up in the current patch and with the incoming nerfs that will only get worse. Unless other things changed I'll be surprised to see it survive over 50% of the time without player intervention.
True, but that shouldn't stop you as a player. Ignore the crap to your east and sprint for Persia and India. Both are incredibly rich, and once you take them over, nothing can stop you.
Russia is harder than many other starting nations, but they can still do well in player hands. The AI? Not so much.
I want to focus on this part of your OP. In short, no. You shouldn't spend mana on development. Developing provinces (with a couple exceptions I will mention in a bit) is wildly inefficient. It is always cheaper to conquer development, and that's what you should do. Push southeast into Persia and India as fast as you can, set up TCs everywhere, and send their trade home.
There are two exceptions to the "don't develop your own provinces" rule:
1) A mission or estate agenda requires it
2) To force institutions to appear in your nation
Aside from that, don't do it. Use Admin mana to core conquests. Use Diplo mana to integrate vassals and hire admirals. Use Military mana to hire generals. And, of course, tech and ideas.
Do this and you'll never fall behind on tech and you will also become the #1 great power, with any nation.
First you conquer everything between you and Persia+India. Then you conquer Persia+India. I've done it many times as Russia.