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From my experience, when it fires, they usually choose the royal marriage, which is usually some random HRE member, as their opinion of France and Austria isn't likely to be very high considering their position.
And here's what probably helps, Be the stronger than Austria, have high prestige.
Then you have to wait for Charles to die, either with no heir, or a young heir (before he's 15) unsure if he needs to have low legitimacy or not, but iv'e seen that the heir often have low legitimacy. Or the heir is Marie.
That should trigger the Burgundian succession, but it's not guarantied that he picks you, they can either pick the Emperor, France, a strong ally or themselves. But if you are a strong! France, and Austria is weaker, and Burgundy has rivaled them, i think the chances are good that you get them.
If you want to sort of full proof it, become the emperor as france.
From my experiences, i tend to get them, when my nation is the strongest on the continent, Last time it was as Austria, which is probably the easiest to get it as. Before that it was as Castile, but a very strong Castile. Also gotten them several times as France.
The new version is a lot more involved, however, the opinion of a nation only matters for France or the Emperor as those two are the only nations in the event where the relation, rival status, and so on are factors in determining the outcome weights. The royal marriage option is the largest nation they have a royal marriage with.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2767958234
If you are starting a game as france, you want to restart unthil he rivals austria, as this will make it less likely that he picks Austria, and you want to ally and royal marry him, and keep high releations. And the stronger you are compared to him and Austria, i think the less likely he is to pick Austria or himself. Same with any other allies.
It's possible I am not saying it's not like that. In that game I was allied to Burgundy and to inherit it was not even my plan, it just happened. I declared war on England, dragged Burgundy in and promised Calais to him. Just to help me out and all. Boom, all mine, out of nowhere
I have gotten it several times my self while burgundy was helping me in a war. Burgundy can ofc make Charles into a General, which would increase his chances of dieing, so dragging him into a war, can make this more likely to happend, im not sure how often the AI make their ruler into a general these days.