It is now year 1509, no colonialism spawned.

[packychan2002]

Colonialism did spawned once in Portugal 1502, but I loaded the previous save and no event was fired again afterwards...I tried saving and loading the game in December every year. Colonialism still didnt spawn

[packychan2002]

it is now year 1513....Colonialism is still a NO...

[packychan2002]

finally....after not less than 50 times of loading saved games, it was born in 1513 Lisbon...I loaded saved games for 5 times at the end of every years, at least

[Keaton]

Curious indeed, did you check the reformation % in the religion tab? Once it has reached a certain threshold, it should trigger the countdown to the next age.

[corisai]

Originally posted by packychan2002:

finally....after not less than 50 times of loading saved games, it was born in 1513 Lisbon...

It's possible as spawn date is not 100% fixed one + institution have a requirements and sometimes AI too unlucky to fill them.
Currently in my game around 1485 there is still zero colonies as Portugal is loosing another war with their allies, England is lost several wars and fighting against constant rebels too + France being in very poor health. Random :) AI isn't going to colonize anything while being deeply in red.

[Malvastor]

Institutions aren't technically guaranteed to spawn as soon as it's possible for them, even if they often do.

From the wiki[eu4.paradoxwikis.com]:

Each year all provinces an institution can spawn in are randomly given a chance to spawn the institution. Each eligible province for an institution has a fixed chance (5% to 25% depending on the institution) to get it to spawn in that province. If only 3 provinces can get it to spawn for an institution with a 10% spawn chance there is a 90% × 90% × 90% = 72.9% chance that it won't spawn in the beginning of that year. If none or only a few provinces are eligible for spawning, it can take years or even decades for an institution to show up. Especially Colonialism is notorious for late spawning due to having only a 5% chance to spawn in a province, which effect is increased if there are not many colonizers or the colonizers have few coastal centers of trade or developed provinces connected to their capital.

So if Portugal's the only colonizing nation (or even if there are only one or two others) there's a significant chance each year that colonialism won't spawn.

[Medicles]

I had actually the same "problem" in my first game on this version as TO. Portugal, Spain, GB and France all had Exploration and yet the institution spawned pretty late, like 1510 or something. It was rather weird, especially since europe was already on tech ahead that belonged to colonialism.

[Cerocivr]

Yeah if you're the only nation who's got to the new world, colonialism has a low chance of spawning. But you can bet your ass the AI gets it the very next year after finding the new world... ♥♥♥♥ the player I guess.

[bri]

They changed the spawn conditions to require an actual new world colony which obviously affects the chances.