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In the end, the best way to win in Europe is ally Austria/Emperor until they're no longer needed.
It does only happen sometimes- I've played quite a few games where the wedding never fires and Aragon just slowly eats Castile alive (or rarely vice versa). It's just RNG; sometimes you get the bar, sometimes the bar gets you.
That's awful. It seems like it shouldn't fire if they are at war and be less likely to fire if they are rivaled. I'm pretty new to the game and thought that it wasn't likely to happen since Castille and Aragon were rivals. I guess that doesn't matter. It seems silly that rivals would all of a sudden become the best of friends like that.
It's 1555 in that game now and I'm still stuck with just Messina from Sicily. lol
Castille and Aragon have become Spain now. I'm doing alright. I've expanded into a lot of northern Italy and east to the Balkans taking Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia, Ragusa, etc. I'm allied with Hungary and Austria. The Ottomans are a massive juggernaut and attacked Venice who was allied with France. When I saw that I got Austria to join me in an offensive war vs the Ottomans at the same time. Hungary wouldn't join. I'm also allied with Milan, and they wouldn't join either (too pre-occupied with their own war). I managed to win the war but couldn't get too high of a war score because the Ottoman navy was too strong, and I couldn't rely on France/Venice for too long and Austria was doing a little but not as much as I'd like. I'm playing with a mod that makes the AI act more like a human player would, so they weren't going all-in. They were putting some towards the Ottomans and defending their own territory.
It was enough to get a few provinces from them and release them as Byzantium, who I made a march. Then a war followed that where we picked apart Venice, so we're making progress. When I'm strong enough we'll get Sicily from Spain.