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I do definitely plan on pushing into the Great Lakes and Kongo areas since they get trade from Zanzibar
Going for the new world is bad for Kilwa since you has not trade node that benefit from trade from the New world. Your goal should be to go towards SE asia and the spice island/malaysia and india.
Here are the New World requirements to spawn Colonialism according to the wiki (which says it is up to date for 1.31):
Owner has Exploration idea "Quest for the New World"
Owner has discovered a land province in the New World
Owner owns a province in the New World or has a colonial subject in the New World
I agree. Kilwa's home node makes a great pseudo end node because you can take over Cape easily and then route all the trade from Asia into Zanzibar.
So I guess my 2 paths are
1) Expansion for the generally superior ideas but I wont be able to rush down the spice islands
2) Exploration to rush down the spice islands and funnel it into Zanzibar, but Exploration basically becomes worthless after I achieved that (then again, I could just delete Exploration and replace it with Expansion after im done)