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I misunderstood your post, sorry.
Well, the AI will not start a war it doesn't think it can win, no matter how much you insult them. Tributaries can fight each other without the overlord intervening though, so I guess keep checking what goes on on the islands. But don't count on the AI starting a war it can't win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B90zjERLN6U
The ai was broken and often didn't consider guarantees and similar relations when deciding if it could win a war or not.
the problem people have is that by the time pdox eventually fixes an issue with the AI (sometimes taking years, sometimes only fixing the issue partially) they've introduced new mechanics that the AI doesn't understand and needs to be fixed for again, which will take another year.
After some years as Ryukyu you can do a political marriage with ming and break the tributary contract, improve relations and get an alliance with ming. You can fabricate a claim on Satsuma and attack Ashikaga/Japan (sometimes Ashikaga or some other Daimyo goes nuts with expanding and founds Japan already around 1500 and if you are lucky the Kyushu and Shikoku Islands are a leftover Daimyo who is independent now). You should have sea superiority, which makes Japan trapped on their island. After you got foot on the mainlaind, you can get more and more provinces.
With this you also don't need to play Daimyo government. I went to Pirate Republic around 1480, taking advantage of re-electing your ruler and getting lots of monarch points. With coast raiding, on Ashikaga/Japan, leftover Daimyos and Philippine nations you will also get plenty of money.
Also, while allied with Ming, they don't cate if you take and colonize Taiwan.