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"Historical" goes out the window the moment you unpause.
But, the reason Portugal can do that is the "Portuguese Colonial Growth" age ability. 50 is huge; especially as an early-game advantage, and with that advantage, they can then also abuse the hell out of the Treaty of Tordesillas.
Colonization is just totally botched for the Americas, and PDX hasn't fixed it yet, but the few open provinces that do exist - shouldn't be geared toward predominantly Portugal, as that just makes no sense. I've seen Portugal end up with the Pope's blessing for 4x different colonial regions in some games, if Portugal gets lucky on some CN wars and rapid-expands more than average. Other than Castille in South America, you'd think that Portugal was the only nation sending Colonists to Central and North America, the way some games play out now. West coast of North America is also capable of a lot of weirdness - had one play where Alaska forms an independent nation, as does Mexico, and because they blob all western Americas they end up butting heads Alaska vs Mexico, while a USA doesn't even form in Eastern NA. Heck, you can't even find enough provinces on the East Coast of NA to come up with 13 of them for the "13 Colonies" at this point. Whoever was behind these changes at PDX should have been fired, but the poor design and logic continue unabated, it seems.
Historically, the Treaty was literally a longitudinal line drawn through South America, with the stipulation of "Spain gets everything west of this, Portugal gets everything east". Whereas in-game, there's a separate treaty for every colonial region basically saying "you're the first Catholic who got here so you have dibs on everything in this region". I think that something resembling the actual Treaty of Tordesillas should be added in-game via a multi-country event, with a historical option, an ahistorical option where you attempt to renegotiate where the line is drawn or who claims which side of it, and another ahistorical option where you refuse to negotiate altogether. Castile/Spain and Portugal would be weighted towards accepting the historical option when controlled by AI, especially if they are on friendly terms with each other, with a small chance that one or both countries refuse, resulting in substantially lowered opinions, permaclaims or some other CB, and the kind of colonial base race that is currently just the norm. Perhaps there should even be a path where, if Castile/Spain accepts the treaty but Portugal declines, or if Portugal attempts to renegotiate and is refused, they get a CB against the Papal States (given the historical situation where the Pope at the time just happened to be Aragonese). In any case, whatever form of treaty is signed should exclusively affect Spain and Portugal - not only did non-Catholic powers like England and the Netherlands completely ignore this treaty, so too did other Catholic nations such as France. Perhaps there can even be follow-on events later giving the opportunity to extend the longitudinal line to the other side of the globe and renegotiate South American borders, as both happened historically as well.
While this is true they could have pretty easily updated it with the dynamic events path so that it only triggers when circumstances warrant (which was the biggest complaint about the version in earlier games in the series). If Castile gets neutered and isn't colonizing they have no business being involved for example.
However, that's straying somewhat from the point of the thread which is Portugal definitely shouldn't have a mission to colonize the Caribbean.
It's 100% because of the mission, without the Caribbean mission the ai would follow their Brazil mission to completion and then choose randomly among the various locales open to them at that point. With the +colonist buff they might get a province or two in the Caribbean before being blocked out by someone else and the ToT but it's unlikely they'd get a full colony going. Instead we constantly see them in the Caribbean because of the mission.
But we should not have to do this. Also I agree natives are OTT now, if you play slower, by time you reach America its full of natives with no land left to colonise.
Aren't the Canaries (and Madeira) already owned by Castile and Portugal at game start? Or is that different in 10.31?