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But really there are every month coin check depending on his age and another coin check whether he is a general (even not designated to army) or not.
the death calculation is close to the bottom. th link sais it better than I could.
If you hover over Age it'll tell your chance to die (just double that if he's also a General).
Once he has a chance to die, it's best to keep an eye for alternatives if you don't have an heir lined up or he suddenly decides to go hunting. (like checking if there's any pretenders rebels you could coax into rebelling and let them win to get a younger/possibly better ruler).
having a lot of royal marriages also can potentially generate higher age heirs of your dynasty. But can also potentially be someone else's dynasty.
699 hours in this game and I've never seen it happen.
The startscreen tip proves true again: I have nearly 1800h and never hovered over the ruler's age.