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Immediately attack Novgorod. Either they have only Odoyev in their trade league or they are allied to Ryazan, both is fine. When Odoyev is in the war, annex them independently. If Ryazan is in the war, take only their Orthodox provinces. Its three of them and they already belong to your states. From Novgorod you take the province Novgorod and every province bordering Sweden and the Livonian Order. The provinces in the Neva state and Novgorod state you get for yourself, the other ones that border Sweden you give to your subject Beloozero.
During the war, get a claim on Tver or Ryazan. Ryazan is more important, because you need the province Ryazan to form Russia. Immediately attack and annex them after the Novgorod war. You dont need to care about any aggressive expansion. Again, annex only the Orthodox provinces of Ryazan and give all the Tver provinces to your subject Rostov.
If you like, you are able to get an alliance with Poland-Lithuania after the first Novgorod war. Its not really needed though, i generally take it only early on, when i have no manpower and Denmark is willing to attack me.
Improve relations with Pskov and Yaroslavl, because you want to diplo-annex both in 1454. If you start on 1 January 1454 with Pskov, i believe you can start with Yaroslavl at 1 March 1454 so both will finish in October 1456. But dont pin me on those numbers, you better look for yourself too.
This means you will have two years for doing nothing. Hopefully Rennaisance has already spawned and you should be right now on tech 4/3/4. You wont have much diplo points because of your ♥♥♥♥♥♥ starting ruler, peace deals and the ongoing diplo-annexation. You are also behind in tech for 5%. I suggest here that you fully develope your capital to be able to embrace Rennaisance. Keep in mind that you are able to get at least -20% dev cost with the Orthodox Patreon and state edict. If you are really lucky you will even get an event at that time that will give another -10% dev cost for the capital only. After that, you tech up like normal.
After diplo-annexing your subjects, its time to go south. Make an alliance with Circassia and bring them to +190 relations. Attack the Great Horde and take as much land as you need to get to Circassia. Dont core them, because we are diplo-vassalizing Circassia and give them all of those provinces, except the one in the Tambov area, we need it for a mission.
That should be enough of a good start.