Poland-Lithuania Personal Union not forming

[tom.bird2012]

Whats the chance of Poland getting a personal union over Lithuania and forming the Commonwealth. I've just come back to the game after a year and thought I'd go for the Iron Price acheivment. I know Muscocvy is strong and I planned to ally the Commonwealth to help counter but after three attempts it nevers forms and Lithuania allies Muscovy/Russia and I just get beat. So the questions I'm really asking is, one does the Commonwealth not form in games as often as it did or am I having bad luck? And two, if it doesn't form and Lithuania allies Muscovy/Russia is there anything I can do as Denmark to counter it?

[equinox1911]

Iirc, the chance of not forming is 25%.

[Tiny Tyrant]

You're having terrible luck, Lithuania and Muscovy are more prone to hating each other than making an alliance. The fact they've been friends three games in a row is pretty surprising to me. But no, there's nothing you can really do to influence the AI's decision on the Successor of Wladyslaw III event.

Honestly though, if you just want to discourage Muscovy from attacking you; you don't need to ally the PLC specifically. Allying anyone strong will help keep Muscovy away, The Ottomans are a pretty good choice; they're very strong and are pretty likely to dislike/rival Muscovy.

[tom.bird2012]

I did manage to ally Ottomans in one game but then they dishonored a defensive call due to them fighting in another war. I'll try another go through and see what happens. But thanks for your reply anyway, I'll see if I can make something work

[tom.bird2012]

Also, both Lithuania and Muscovy rivaled me and were hostile towards me. So I don't know whether that had any influence on the two allying each other or not.

[tonypa]

Lithuania and Muscovy allying is very rare. Even when Lithuania stays separate, they should still ally Poland and rival Muscovy.

[Skeletonking]

I usually see Poland get a union with Lithunia, but usually they don't annex them.