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The event itself is not quaranteed to pop, the ruler of Crimea has to die before 1466 while not in war and the base chance of becoming Otto march is only 35% (increased by size of Ottos).
So should I ally them and then try to expand to take Byzantium/Albania or Serbia to just increase the chances? Or should I get something in the Crimea region? I read it can increase trigger chance even more. I'm still learning this game but my first try I got Crimea as a march so I'd like to do that without war on them.
If 1466 has passed or the ruler of Crimea has already changed, you can not get them for free anymore so you need to conquer and vassalize them like any other country.
if they do start to lose a war tho you prob want to ally them
The cb holds for 15 years, more than enough time to break the truce and prepare.
Allying them keeps them save. They usually get easily slaughtered early on.
in my games they norm blob with no help from ottos (iv seen them take half the great horde and parts of lith)
The max chance is if Ottos have 40 or more provinces and Crimea has < 12. There's also a bonus to the chance if crimea_region = { owned_by = TUR } (and no chance if anatolia_region isn't owned) but I'm not sure whether that means 100% owned or just owning one province in the region or what.