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In order to from Yuan you have to be Emperor of China; to be Emperor of China you have to be in either the Pagan or Eastern Religious groups. Chagatai is Sunni. Not Tengri with Sunni as it's syncretic faith, just Sunni.
Chagatai has to convert itself to become Emperor. It's impossible to convert yourself to Tengri, so the closest Religions that you can use to become Emperor are Vajrayana and Confucian.
Because of Islam's estates it's not that hard to convert, but it leaves you somewhat weak; and Chagatai has strong neighbors who are most likely hostile and waiting to attack them.
Honestly, I feel that Oirat is in the best position to form Yuan personally.
Edit: Actually, Islamic Hordes don't get the Dhimmi estate. Which means converting is a massive pain. Chagatai is actually terrible for this.
http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=913620002
Here are the requirements to form Yuan, notice you need to be the Emperor of China. To be Emperor you need to take the Mandate of Heaven by force; which is a unique CB.
http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=913620133
As you can see, Chagatai does not have this CB.
http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=913620271
Oirat does, however.
The reason for this is Religion, Oirat is Tengri which is a part of the Pagan group; so they can take the Mandate. Chagatai being Sunni cannot take the Mandate, which means they cannot be Emperor, which means they cannot from Yuan as easily.
but someone make the wrong tag as "Qin"(Qin, a nation in Shaanxi) in the txt of decision , not "QNG"(Qing Empire). So Qing can become Yuan, but it is a mistake !
Edit - Also the close proximity to Buriyatias gold mine and the ease of access to yarkands makes maximizing profits a whole lot easier.
The Altaic hordes don't have Banners, they need manpower from their provinces. And they need a lot of it to challenge Ming. The Altaic culture group is among the largest in the game, you can actually use a lot of the land you conquer, unlike Jurchen hordes who can only actually use the land in Manchuria for the most part. You just need to use discretion when razing, you usually only want to raze provinces that are not in the Altaic group, provinces that are the wrong religion, or both. Razing everthing you conquer will leave you too weak, considering you'll be fighting the strongest nation in the game; at the start anyway.
Edit: I just discovered that Oirat starts with an AMAZING general, he can and will lead you to victory against Chagatai and Uzbek very early on. Yeah, it's Oirat or bust.
Manpower shouldn't be a problem with hordes with their intense manpower bonuses and if you conquer a mere 100 provinces no matter the development you would have more than 300 development. You should also probably use the extra MP you get from razing to develop for insitutions which would give you atleast 40 dev for each one anyway. You should only state high development territories so stating worthless states in central Asia would be a waste. So what's 75% of 3 development as opposed to 12.
http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=913858913
now you only need to be of altaic culture which you aint maybe (i didnt claim it to be doable it will pop up than; it usually does)
Its very easy. I already did it myself. All you have to do is annex all the yuan cultures, then make those your states (turn almost everything else into territories) and you can culture shift, then form yuan.
just shift your culture back to manchu when yuan is your nation, then you can also have banners. its a bit time consuming, and yes you have to spend admin points recoring old territories into states again...but you would have had to do that anyhow starting as a horde anyhow, not to mention centuries of getting it finished. you can form Qing (as Ming) withing 15 years, then Yuan within another 10.
its extremely op and nothing in the game will be able to stop you after that as you have the most powerful national ideas along with banner units, harmony and the chinese development backing you up.